US report cautions India on China-Pak threat

INDIA is confident that the success of Operation Sindoor will force Pakistan to mend its ways at long last. However, the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) latest worldwide threat assessment report paints a sobering picture. It says that Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue military modernisation efforts, including the development of nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage. New Delhi has sent a stern message to Islamabad that it will not succumb to nuclear blackmail, but that may not be enough to deter the hostile neighbour. “Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries,” the report adds. Pakistan’s ploy is obvious: Even if the nuclear bogey fails to intimidate India, it will rattle the West to the extent of eliciting a third-party intervention.

The elevation of army chief Gen Asim Munir to the rank of Field Marshal shows that Pakistan will miss no opportunity to cock a snook at India. If the DIA’s assessment is to be believed, cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours may continue to figure among the Pakistani military’s top priorities during the next year or so. This implies that India will have to maintain a high state of vigil along the Line of Control. There is no room for the Indian armed forces to lower their guard and take the current ceasefire for granted.

The report notes that India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more as an “ancillary security problem to be managed”. The ground reality is that the two bugbears are inseparable. China has been showering economic and military largesse on Pakistan with the aim of keeping India in check. Ironically, the report is silent on the India-US defence cooperation, even as it regards Russia as a key ally that Delhi banks on to counter the China-Pak threat. These takeaways can help India fine-tune its roadmap for achieving its economic and defence objectives.

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