OPINION | India's new security posture: Future implications of the four-day India-Pakistan face-off
As the dust settles after the India-Pakistan near-war episode between May 7 to 10, analysts are hard at work, reconstructing the sequence of events and the details that make them up. This is a challenging task given the surfeit of misleading and speculative analyses and reporting. While the governments of India and Pakistan have started offering their sides of the events, one cannot use them to build a wholly accurate and reliable picture. At least not yet. This limitation does not stop one from highlighting a few important points related to the events that unfolded from April 22 and having a bearing on the security dynamics between India and Pakistan going into the future.
After the dastardly killing of 26 tourists at the Baisaran Valley in Pahalgam on April 22, as the nation was coming to know more about the killings, the spectre of intelligence failure announced itself. The opposition parties saw the incident as one stemming from intelligence failure and security lapses. Former Army chief General Shankar Roychowdhury (Retd) also viewed it as a case of intelligence failure and demanded accountability. Such observations and calls for accountability are not without merit. In a democracy, it is par for the course for uncomfortable and pointed questions to be posed to the government. Such allegations need to be tempered with the realisation that the geography of the region, the presence of elements hostile to the Indian state, and a determined foe on the other side of the LoC/border makes preventing such acts of violence nearly impossible.
The Pakistani military’s very existence is premised on enmity with India and failure to keep the pot boiling with highly provocative acts of violence through terrorists will undermine its own standing within the Pakistani polity. If there is one skill the Pakistani army and the ISI has honed over the many decades, it is using proxies against its neighbours with great effect. It is wholly reasonable to assume that no matter how vigilant the Indian security agencies are, such acts will happen. Consider this a perverse twist to the uplifting saying ‘where there is a will, there is a way.’
While information regarding the action taken by India is still hazy, it is being widely reported – by serious analysts and experts – that India’s air defence system did a stellar job. The superb integration of Indian, Russian, and Israeli systems ensured that Pakistani missiles and aircraft could not meaningfully strike Indian military installations. Names such as ‘Brahmos,’ ‘Akash,’ and ‘Pechora’ are now being discussed in many an Indian home over the dinner table. While such attention and celebration are certainly warranted, one must not lose sight of the fact that India’s fight with terrorists and their backers is a long-drawn one. This flare-up is but one incident in a long list of incidents and certainly not the last one.
As a result, India and Pakistan will definitely revisit this space. And Pakistan would have taken remedial steps in light of the impunity with which Indian projectiles hit targets across the length and breadth of the country. The willingness of its backer, China, to supply Pakistan with state-of-the-art weapons platforms so as to keep India locked in a security contest with Pakistan should not at all be doubted. The greater India’s urge to climb the rungs of world power, the stronger will be China’s determination to stop this from happening. The shadow of China will loom ever more prominently in future India-Pakistan armed contestations. An already-risen China, with significant clout in various international organisations, will feel further emboldened to back Pakistan in its terrorist enterprise and provide it with the necessary cover.
Based on India’s response to terrorist acts in 2016, 2019, and 2025, it is clear that the era of ‘strategic restraint’ is over. The Modi government has established a new parameter for responding to acts of terrorism. This involves carrying out strikes across the LoC and the international border. In doing so, it has clearly signalled that all parts of Pakistan will come within the ambit of India’s retaliatory strikes. No place within Pakistan is safe. This non-compromising stand was further underlined on May 11 when India let it be known that future acts of terrorism would be seen as a declaration of war and that strong responses from India should be expected. Such a “locking in” strategy may work for the Modi-led government given its traditional commitment to a strong national security focus. The BJP’s penchant to accord national security the pride of place and its confidence in the use of military power to tackle security challenges mean that it will devote material and ideational resources towards constantly fine-tuning its strategy.
However, once one takes a long-term view, doubts emerge. In a robust democracy like India, the BJP cannot be expected to hold on to power forever. With a future change of government (and priorities), one cannot be sure that the newly installed government will accord the pride of place to national security and military power in the way in which this BJP-led government does. Lacking the BJP’s appetite and inclination on the matter, yet compelled to uphold the newly unveiled ‘doctrine’ through public demand and expectation, the government may be forced to act when it is not fully convinced, comfortable, or willing. By announcing this new approach towards acts of terrorism, the present government has seemingly reduced the space for future governments to manoeuvre when faced with terrorist acts. Whether it is for the better or the worse, time will tell.
The author is an Assistant Professor in the Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social Sciences at the South Asian University, New Delhi.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.
Defence