BJP’s Nilambur confusion: A false start for NDA ahead of election season in Kerala?

In politics, uncertainties often have a trickle-down effect. When the top decision-maker is confused, it inevitably triggers a ripple effect across the party and its alliance. The BJP's leadership in Kerala offers a case in point, as internal confusion emerged over whether the party should even field a candidate in the upcoming Nilambur by-poll.

 

The Nilambur constituency, where minority communities hold significant influence, has traditionally witnessed a bipolar contest between the UDF and the LDF. The upcoming bypoll was necessitated by the resignation of sitting MLA P.V. Anvar in January. Anvar, who had won the seat in 2016 and 2021 as an LDF-backed Independent, parted ways with the Left Democratic Front following a fallout with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

 

This crucial by-poll is now being projected as a ‘quarter-final’ ahead of the fast-approaching local body elections and the 2026 Assembly polls. It is also being positioned as a key battleground to gauge the state government’s popularity. However, BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar has downplayed the significance of the bypoll, arguing that the new MLA would have only a few months in office before the next Assembly election, making the contest largely unnecessary.

 

Notably, during a core committee meeting, a section of BJP leaders reportedly questioned whether the party should even contest the bypoll or instead channel its energy into the upcoming local elections. On the other hand, another group of leaders warned that staying out of the race could trigger controversy and invite allegations that the BJP had struck a covert deal with either the UDF or the LDF, depending on the eventual outcome. Such allegations could be detrimental for the party before the local body elections and assembly polls.

 

The BJP is considering handing back the Nilambur seat to its junior ally in Kerala, the BDJS. Notably, when the BDJS contested the seat in 2016 as part of the NDA, the alliance secured over 12,284 votes. In contrast, when the BJP fielded its own candidate in 2021, the NDA's vote count dropped to around 8,595. However, both times the LDF’s margin of victory was less than the number of NDA votes. It has been observed that any decision by the NDA not to contest this election could even impact the by-polls results.

 

The BDJS is yet to confirm whether it is ready to contest in Nilambur. BDJS supremo Thuashar Vellapally’s initial reaction was lukewarm, but he indicated that if such a need is raised in the NDA meeting, the party would consider the possibility. Nevertheless, it is clear that the BJP’s confusion over whether to even contest the Nilambur election—a major curtain-raiser for Kerala’s highly charged election season—has already given the NDA a false start. 

India