IMD predicts above-normal monsoon

The southwest monsoon, which entered Kerala last week, will be above normal from June to September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), which is 870 mm. LPA is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (such as month or season) averaged over a long period like 30 years.

Risk of flooding

Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources, but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns and harm to ecosystems, which can be mitigated by timely measures and preparedness.

Dr Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra, Director General, IMD 

According to the IMD, the rainfall over the monsoon core zone and rain-fed agriculture areas of the country would be above normal. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal form the country’s core monsoon zone where agriculture is primarily rain-fed.

Director General, IMD, Dr Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said the early onset of monsoon this year could be advantageous for agriculture.

“It will be advantageous for agriculture. Even in the northeast India, it will be advantageous for the crops grown there and it will be good for the waterbodies as well which will be filled during monsoon,” he said.

On the early onset of southwest monsoon this year, M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, “There were multiple large-scale features like the El Nino southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole, among others, that remained favourable.”

“During June to September, normal to above-normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest and east India and many areas of northeast India where below normal rainfall is very likely,” the Met Department said.

Below-normal rainfall is expected over the regions such as Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, along with northeast regions of the country in June.

June will witness normal to below-normal monthly maximum temperatures likely over most parts of the country, except many regions of the northwest India and northeast India, where above normal temperatures are very likely. “Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except some parts of Central India and adjoining south Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are very likely,” the IMD said.

Mohapatra said owing to above-normal rainfall, the heatwave will be below normal. Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources, but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns and harm to ecosystems.

“To address these risks, strategies can include reinforcing infrastructure, making use of IMD’s early warning systems, strengthening surveillance and conservation initiatives, and establishing response mechanisms within sectors that are particularly vulnerable,” IMD said.

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