Opinion: Dialogue Is The Strategy Pakistan Fears, Munir Will Thrive Only If There Is A War

The retaliation by India targeting the headquarters of terrorist entities like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Pakistan, under Operation Sindoor, has redefined the way the world will look and address the growing challenge of countering terrorism, which is undergoing a paradigm shift as geopolitical headwinds become stronger and fiercer.

While India launched Operation Sindoor in an effort to avenge the terrorist attack that took place in Pahalgam where men, and particularly Hindus, were targeted and brutally killed in the meadows of Pahalgam's Baisaran on April 22, this is not the first time India has witnessed such targeted attacks on Hindus.

In the 1998 Wandhama massacre, 23 Kashmiri Hindus were killed in a terror attack, while the Chamba massacre saw the death of 35 Hindus the same year. And as many as 29 Hindus lost their lives in the Prankote massacre, again in 1998. All these attacks were carried out by Pakistan-based Hizbul Mujahideen and LeT. 

Then there was 2000 and 2001 when mostly non-Muslims were targeted and killed in what came to be known as the Chittisinghpura and Kot Charwal carnages, respectively. The Doda massacre of 2006 saw the dastardly killing of 57 Hindus. Apart from these, there have been four major terrorist attacks that have taken place on Amarnath Yatra pilgrims in 1993, 2000, 2001, and 2002. In June 2024, Hindu pilgrims on the way from Mata Vaishno Devi were also targeted. 

These attacks were simply carried out by LeT and Jaish terrorists to bring instability in the region, bringing two countries on the brink of a full-scale war, which is the main objective of these terrorist groups. 

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Pakistan’s Kashmir Obsession

A month ago, Pakistan Army Chief, now Field Marshal, Asim Munir gave an ambitious lecture to his countrymen about two-nation theory, called Kashmir Pakistan's “jugular vein”, and stressed how much different they are from the Hindus. It is clear today that he did so to upset India and his key aim was to trigger New Delhi. Today, after Operation Sindoor and more than 40 days since his ostentatious speech, Munir has ensured not just his own growth in terms of success in his military career but has also made sure that the public sentiment against Pakistani army within his country takes a positive turn. Till last year, India’s strategic community was predicting the end of Munir’s career. 

An empowered Munir will now hatch larger plans against India and stop at nothing to fulfil his ambitions. In the months and years to come, Pakistan may once again attempt to do a Kargil when its Army tried to capture some of the strategic mountain peaks on the Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC), including Tololing, Tiger Hill and Point 4875. These peaks offered a strategic advantage, allowing Pakistani forces to overlook the Srinagar-Leh highway and target Indian military traffic. The Indian Army launched ‘Operation Vijay’ to recapture these areas, eventually regaining control of the strategic heights.

As US-based scholar Christine Fair points out in 'Fighting To The End - The Pakistan Army’s Way of War', most military writings by Pakistan's defence analysts focus on how India rejects the legitimacy of Partition, and that it seeks to either reabsorb or dominate Pakistan. The idea of 'Akhand Bharat' is the antithesis of Partition and two-nation theory, which continues to disturb Pakistan's military psyche. Even Field Marshal Ayub Khan in his autobiography 'Friends Not Masters' makes a mention of Pakistan’s existential crisis. 

Coming to Jammu and Kashmir, what Munir said is not new in the books of Pakistan Army. When the raiders tried to take away Kashmir in 1947, Pakistan’s founding father Muhammad Ali Jinnah on his last days was confronted with a question about the economic viability of his country. He was quite unsure and answered: “We will worry about the impact of free Kashmir when time comes, you know Kashmiris were never known as people who would fight, but look at them now.”

On the other hand, Sheikh Abdullah, Kashmir's tallest leader, was vehemently against Pakistan's occupation of Kashmir till his last day, and most of Kashmiris back then sided with what Shiekh would decide. Therefore, it’s clear that Jinnah was not speaking for Kashmiris, but for his own country. 

Much later, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto said Kashmir is the “handsome head of the body of Pakistan” held by India “against all norms of morality”. This has been mentioned by Stephen Philip Cohen in his book 'The Idea of Pakistan'. 

With India's involvement in the formation of Bangladesh in 1971, Pakistan has been chalking out plans to take Kashmir away from India. Pakistan's ambitions over Kashmir has always been a military project and not a political project. And Munir today is willing to give shape to that irredentism.

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Munir, Malik, And The Mountain War Playbook 

Field Marshal Munir is shrewd and cunning in choosing his men. He, along with the Pakistan government, chose the current Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Lt Gen Muhammad Asim Malik, as National Security Adviser (NSA), while continuing as the director general of ISI for a reason. 

Malik is more of a 'military scholar' and a strategist. A post doctoral in military studies, Malik wrote a thesis in 2003 on mountain warfare and what one needs to be prepared while taking on the arduous mountain postings. His thesis, titled 'Mountain Warfare - The Need For Specialist Training', also explicitly mentions how to win a war in Kashmir. What is significant of his 56-page thesis is not only the text on how mountain warfare should be drawn but on modalities on war should be fought in the inhospitable areas of Kashmir and Siachen.

He writes that Pakistan has to cope up with mountain warfare and anyone fighting on that terrain will have to cope up with the environment. He mentions how the Northern Light Infantry (NLI) has been raised among the locals in PoK, to acclimatise with the weather and fight the adversary — India. He elaborates about the familiarisation of the terrain and the physical strength along with most importantly mental strength. He emphasises on the weaponry where handguns need to be utilised.

Emphasising on leadership and how targets are drawn, Malik's thesis is today probably serving as a handbook to the terrorists who are pushed inside India through the rugged mountainous terrain along the LoC and International Border in Jammu & Kashmir. This is also perhaps the guidebook for terrorist organisations like the LeT or JeM. 

It is be a matter of time when these two powerful men — Munir and Malik — will stage a military coup in Pakistan while openly supporting ‘jihad’ against India. In a broader sense, the big question that comes up is military solution and their proxy war using the terrorists is a long drawn tactic which Pakistan will use despite all the pressure from the international community.

Therefore, India should be watchful of the movements these two men take and avoid walking into their trap by avoiding a political dialogue, only focussing at a military intervention instead. While India has made it clear that there is no “ceasefire” even as Operation Sindoor continues, New Delhi can turn this project into one where dialogue is given priority over military actions because that will only empower Pakistan Army’s military ambitions and continue to internationalise the issue of Kashmir, while the doors of so-called mediation by the United States and others will remain open.

Nayanima Basu is a senior independent journalist.

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