Nilambur byelection: Is M Swaraj's candidature a blessing in disguise for PV Anvar?

The CPI(M) has made a bold move by fielding state secretariat member M. Swaraj as the Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate for the Nilambur by-polls. With Swaraj—a native of Nilambur and a prominent young face in the party—entering the fray, it's clear that the CPI(M) intends to turn the by-election, seen as a "quarter-final" ahead of the upcoming local body and Assembly elections, into a fierce political contest.

 

Swaraj, who represented the Thripunithura constituency in the Kerala Assembly from 2016 to 2021, is widely regarded as one of CPI(M)’s most articulate debaters in recent decades. An orator and author, he currently serves as the resident editor of Deshabhimani, the CPI(M) Kerala's mouthpiece.

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It is an open secret that the CPI(M) considered several options, including independent candidates, before settling on Swaraj as the LDF candidate. Discussions with various potential contenders had, in fact, delayed the party’s final decision.

 

Interestingly, in recent days, Youth Congress state president and MLA Rahul Mankoottathil had publicly challenged the CPI(M) to field Swaraj. “Those who are bragging that 'Pinarayi 3.0 loading' now find themselves unable to even field a candidate for a sitting seat—what a pitiable state of affairs. If CPI(M) truly believes it can win a sitting seat, it should nominate M. Swaraj—who is not only from Nilambur but also in charge of the constituency. Swaraj should be brave enough to accept the challenge,” Mankoottathil posted on Facebook, mocking the CPIM.

 

The CPI(M) seems to have taken that challenge head-on. “A political battle is about to unfold in Nilambur,” said CPI(M) state secretary M.V. Govindan, while announcing Swaraj’s candidature. For the party, this election is not just about defeating the UDF, but also about defeating P.V. Anvar, former Nilambur MLA who quit the LDF after a standoff with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. “Anvar betrayed the Left Front,” Govindan said.

 

Interestingly, Swaraj’s entry into the electoral fray could turn out to be a blessing for Anvar, whose entry into the UDF still remains in limbo. According to the 2011 Census, Muslims constitute 43.9% of the Nilambur electorate, Hindus 45.3%, and Christians 10.8%. Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes account for 8% and 3.3%, respectively. Given this demographic breakdown, if the UDF fails to accommodate Anvar and his vote base—and he contests independently—a possible split in the Muslim vote could tilt the balance in CPI(M)’s favour. This is because both Anvar and UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath draw their strength primarily from the Muslim community in the constituency. Ironically, Swaraj’s candidacy could compel the UDF to reconsider Anvar’s inclusion—possibly rescuing his political career from a sudden death.

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The BJP-led NDA is yet to announce its candidate, but the alliance has already stumbled out of the gate, caught in confusion over whether the BJP or the NDA should even field a candidate in the Nilambur by-poll. Meanwhile, observers note that the CPI(M) may be aiming for a consolidation of Hindu votes and other communities behind Swaraj alongside the sure-bet party votes—even as the party positions the contest as a referendum on the Pinarayi Vijayan government's performance.

India