What will happen If Earth’s temperature rises by just 2 degrees Celsius? These places will…
Our planet Earth is truly amazing. It’s the only home we have, providing everything we need to survive, including air, water, food, shelter, and biodiversity. Have you ever wondered what would happen if the global temperature rises by two degrees Celsius? According to a new scientific study, the Hindu Kush Himalaya, an important water source for nearly two billion people, could lose up to 75 per cent of its glacier ice by the end of this century if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
It is important to note that the glaciers in the Hindu Kush mountains are the source of many rivers, which receive their water from the glaciers and support the livelihoods of two billion people. A study published in the scientific journal Science states that if countries can limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, around 40–45% of the glacier ice in the Himalayas and the Caucasus Mountains could be preserved. In contrast, the study found that if global temperatures rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, only about one-quarter of the world’s glacier ice will remain.
“We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial),” reads the abstract of the study.
The study states that glacier regions most important to human communities, such as the European Alps, the mountain ranges of western North America and Canada, and Iceland, will be especially hard hit. At a global temperature rise of two degrees Celsius, these regions could lose nearly all of their ice, with only about 10–15 percent of the 2020 ice levels remaining.
The study reads, “If global temperatures stabilize at the limits targeted in the Paris Agreement, then glaciers are projected to eventually lose 47% (range, 20 to 64%) of their global mass relative to 2020 for a +1.5°C scenario and 63% (range, 43 to 76%) for a +2.0°C scenario, contributing 138 mm (range, 59 to 237 mm) and 190 mm (range, 128 to 279 mm) to global mean sea-level rise, respectively (all values at steady state). Under current climate policy pledges, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7°C above preindustrial levels by 2100 (30), which would result in eventually losing 76% (range, 54 to 82%) of glacier mass globally, corresponding to 230 mm (range, 159 to 302 mm) of sea-level rise. Thus, more than twice as much global glacier mass is projected to remain long term under the Paris Agreement +1.5°C goal compared with current climate policies.”
The outlook for the Scandinavian mountains appears even more dire, with forecasts suggesting that glaciers in the region could lose all their ice at this temperature level. The study emphasizes that keeping the global temperature increase within the 1.5°C limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement could aid in retaining some glacier ice in all affected areas.
While speaking at the conference, Asian Development Bank Vice-President Yingming Yang said. “Melting glaciers threaten lives on an unprecedented scale, including the livelihoods of more than 2 billion people in Asia. Switching to clean energy to cut the release of planet-warming emissions remains the most effective way of slowing glacial melt”.
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