Is P.V. Anvar proving to be a bigger headache for the UDF he sought to join, than for the LDF he left behind? 

As P.V. Anvar announced the formation of a new political front in Kerala—Janakeeya Prathipaksha Prathirodha Munnani (JPPM)—questions have emerged over whether his move will ultimately harm the United Democratic Front (UDF) more than the Left Democratic Front (LDF), despite his declaration that 'Pinarayisam' remains his primary adversary. Central to Anvar’s recent rhetoric is his enmity with UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath.

Anvar declared that immediately after filing his nomination, he would visit the house of the late Congress leader V.V. Prakash, who had contested against Anvar in the 2021 assembly elections as the UDF candidate, while Anvar stood as an LDF-backed independent. Prakash died of heart failure just two days before the counting, having lost by a narrow margin of 2,700 votes.

“Prakash died broken-hearted,” Anvar said, suggesting that Shoukath was responsible for the pressure that led to his death. “His family—his wife, children, father, and mother—believe it was the extreme stress he endured from that individual that caused it,” Anvar claimed. He further alleged that a relative of Prakash had told him that Shoukath appeared happy after Prakash’s untimely demise.

Anvar also challenged Shoukath to visit Prakash’s home and seek votes. “This so-called cultural and social leader everyone celebrates—has he even once gone to that house to ask for a vote? Does he have the courage? He hasn’t—not even once,” Anvar lashed out.

Earlier, Anvar also accused Shoukath of making films that were against the Muslim community. “Shoukath has made statements about his own community that even the RSS wouldn’t dare to make,” he alleged.

In response, Aryadan Shoukath dismissed the controversy, saying he would not react to Anvar’s remarks. Though UDF leaders, including the opposition leader, against whom Anvar raised personal allegations, have largely brushed off Anvar’s provocations, there are growing concerns that he could erode the UDF’s vote base in the upcoming bypoll.

And now, by announcing a new political front, Anvar is positioning himself as a challenger to the UDF, LDF, and NDA—though this new alliance could prove short-lived, much like his earlier outfit, the DMK, which faded into obscurity.

With the CPI(M) fielding its state secretariat member M. Swaraj in Nilambur—contesting on the party symbol—the bypolls have already shaped up into a fierce political contest. Meanwhile, the BJP has declared Adv. Mohan George, a defector from the Kerala Congress and a native of the Christian belt in the constituency, as its candidate—clearly aligning with the party’s larger plan to court Christian votes in Kerala. It’s worth noting that the Kerala Congress is an ally of the Congress within the UDF, and any leakage of Christian votes could weaken the UDF candidate, just as a vote shift towards Anvar—who is primarily targeting the Muslim demographic—could also undercut UDF’s prospects.

Simultaneously, the Anvar issue is becoming a tool for a section within the UDF that is dissatisfied with the leadership style of opposition leader and UDF convenor V.D. Satheesan. 

Notably, Satheesan was the main obstacle to Anvar’s smooth entry into the UDF. After Satheesan closed the Anvar chapter, Anvar struck back with statements aimed at deepening internal fissures. "[Satheesan] is now ruling the UDF in true Hitler style," Anvar said, accusing him of even ignoring the intervention of [IUML state committee president] Panakkad Sadikhali Thangal, who had advocated for 'justice' in his case. Anvar claims that while the UDF had decided to admit the TMC as an associate member, Satheesan was the one responsible for delaying the official announcement.

Reportedly, a section of Muslim League leaders criticised Satheesan during the League’s internal meetings for mishandling the matter. However, the League’s official stance remains that no criticism targeting any specific leader was raised. Similarly, multiple senior Congress leaders have quietly expressed dissatisfaction with how the episode was handled, even as Congress and the UDF maintain that they hold a unanimous position on Anvar. 

Some quarters remain hopeful that new developments may unfold before June 5—the last date for withdrawal of nominations—that could bring the UDF and Anvar back on the same page.

All these developments have turned the Nilambur bypoll into a high-stakes battle for Satheesan as well. A clear victory for UDF candidate Shoukath would strengthen Satheesan’s leadership and reinforce his grip over the party and the front. 

However, a defeat could trigger dissent within the UDF, with voices calling for his head. To secure a win, Satheesan and his team of young Turks leading the campaign must prevent any leakage of votes—whether to Anvar or to other contenders, including the BJP’s strategic candidate.

India