Why do Russia and Ukraine swap prisoners, but not peace?

The second round of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations at Istanbul concluded with no ceasefire, but yet another prisoner exchange. The two sides have agreed to release the dead remains of 6,000 soldiers each.

Despite Russia not accepting the ceasefire deal that Ukraine, the US and its Western allies put forward with a view to eventually end the three-year conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described it as a great meeting and explained that he next hoped to bring together Russia's Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump for a meeting in Türkiye.

While Moscow stated that it sought a long-term settlement, rather than a pause in the conflict, Kyiv again accused Putin of not being interested in peace.

This begs the question—what makes it easier for the two sides to swap prisoners (POWs) in large numbers, but not arrive at a ceasefire deal?

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Since the escalation of the three-year-long conflict in February 2022, the two nations have carried out multiple prisoner swaps.

In May 2024 alone, Russia and Ukraine carried out multiple POW swaps. On May 31, 2024, the two sides swapped 75 people each, including soldiers captured in Mariupol and Bakhmut, as well as a few civilians. This was one of the largest POW exchanges between them since February 2022. 

Since then, thousands of prisoners have been exchanged in this manner, often facilitated by third parties. For example, the United Arab Emirates played a vital role in mediating a January 2024 swap of over 190 POWs from both sides. Türkiye and the Red Cross have also been instrumental in similar ways.

 

Limited cooperation versus strategic stalemate

A sad consequence of conflict is the reduction of soldiers to numbers. Important numbers, but numbers, nevertheless. Prisoner swaps, being largely humanitarian and politically safe, therefore become a form of limited cooperation that does not require too much compromise.

They are symbolic and practical, but do not touch core political disagreements: they operate independently of larger and more complicated peace negotaition processes.

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A ceasefire, and by extension, an end to the conflict, would require significant political concessions. 

Kyiv and its European allies have repeatedly accused the Kremlin of stalling for time (and for negotiating the best conditions they could possibly get) with its promised peace memorandum, in the wake of Russia's attrition warfare fuelled by incessant attempts to capture more Ukrainian land. Kyiv, on the other hand, refuses to cede its territory, but also seeks peace.

Peace, therefore, is at the moment costlier than conflict.

 

Domestic pressure and strategic calculations

Both Moscow and Kyiv use prisoner returns to rally domestic support. Indeed, Zelenskyy regularly posts photos and videos of returned POWs reunited with their families, whereas Russian state media brands POW returns as proof of Putin's commitment to his troops, and to his nation as a whole.

However, a broader peace deal would inevitably require compromise, which would make it harder to sell. 

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For Ukraine, accepting the territorial loss of Moscow-annexed places like Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia could fracture public trust and governmental legitimacy. For Russia, a ceasefire without territorial gains might be portrayed as a defeat in its own “special military operation”—something Putin would very much want to avoid.

Therefore, while prisoner exchanges between the two nations have always taken place on the sidelines of peace negotiations, it must be understood that they are often far removed from actual steps towards peace—they are controlled, transactional acts that serve humanitarian needs and political image-making.

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So, as long as core war aims remain mutually exclusive and irreconcilable, these swaps may continue as rare points of contact in an otherwise devastating conflict.  

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