Can China stop the flow of Brahmaputra river into India? Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma gives Pakistan a reality check
The success of India’s Operation Sindoor in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack had rattled Pakistani political and military establishment to the core. After the ‘Tum hamara paani rokoge, hum tumhara saans rok denge’ [you will stop our water, we will stop your breath] hollow threats, Pakistan has come up with a new manufactured threat regarding Brahmaputra River as India has put the Indus Water Treaty into abeyance. Addressing this new manufactured threat: “What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?”, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma gave a rude reality check to Pakistan.
In an X post on 2nd June 2025, CM Sarma responded to Pakistan’s scare narrative invoking its ally China, and said that the Brahmaputra river does not shrink but ‘grows’ in India. He added that China only contributes around 30 to 35% of the river’s total flow.
“What If China Stops Brahmaputra Water to India? A Response to Pakistan’s New Scare Narrative After India decisively moved away from the outdated Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan is now spinning another manufactured threat: “What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?” Let’s dismantle this myth — not with fear, but with facts and national clarity: Brahmaputra: A River That Grows in India — Not Shrinks. China contributes only ~30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow — mostly through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall,” the Assam Chief Minister said.
CM Himanta Biswa Sarma further explained that the remaining 65 to 70% of Brahmaputra’s flow is generated within India through torrential rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Besides, tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili and inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi contribute to the Brahmaputra within Indian territory.
“The remaining 65–70% is generated within India, thanks to:Torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Major tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili. Additional inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi,” CM Sarma added.
Explaining how the flow of Brahmaputra river increases dramatically in India while it is way lesser at the Indo-China border, the Assam Chief Minister said, “At the Indo-China border (Tuting): Flow is ~2,000–3,000 m³/s. In Assam plains (e.g., Guwahati): Flow swells to 15,000–20,000 m³/s during monsoon.”
Reiterating that India does not depend on China for Brahmaputra river’s uninterrupted flow and that Brahmaputra grows in India, CM Sarma said: “Brahmaputra is not a river India depends on upstream — it is a rain-fed Indian river system, strengthened after entering Indian territory.”
However, addressing the hypothetical situation of China reducing the flow of Brahmaputra river at the behest of Pakistan to pressure India into reconsidering its stance on Indus Water Treaty, CM Sarma said that even that would be beneficial for India in mitigating annual floods in Assam.
The flow of Brahmputra river (Image via Business Today)
“Even if China were to reduce water flow (unlikely as China has never threatened or indicated in any official forum), it may actually help India mitigate the annual floods in Assam, which displace lakhs and destroy livelihoods every year,” the Chief Minister of Assam said.
He further stated that while Pakistan exploited 74 years of preferential water access under the Indus Waters Treaty, the hostile neighbour is now in panic mode as India rightfully reclaimed its sovereign rights.
Issuing a stern reminder to Pakistan, Himanta Biswa Sarma said: “Brahmaputra is not controlled by a single source — it is powered by our geography, our monsoon, and our civilisational resilience.”
Pakistan’s dams run dry weeks after it spilled blood of innocent Indians in Pahalgam
Pakistan’s desperate ‘act of war’ and China threats come as the hostile neighbour faces a dismal kharif (summer crop) sowing season due to a significant decline in live storage at its two main dams, Tarbela on the Indus and Mangla on the Jhelum. Moreover, India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the wake of the recent Pahalgam terror attack by Pakistan-baced Islamic terror outfit The Resistance Front (offshoot of Pakistani terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba) and regulate the flow of the Chenab River have only exacerbated the issue.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed alarm during an international conference on glacier preservation last week in Dushanbe in Tajikistan that the impending shortfall would get more dire in the coming weeks, especially during the early part of the kharif sowing season. Prime Minister Sharif also ranted about India suspended the water treaty.
The recent estimates from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) outlined that the nation is already experiencing a 21% overall water flow shortage and roughly 50% live storage shortage in the two major dams that are essential for producing hydropower and supplying water for irrigation in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
Significance of the Brahmaputra River for India and China
Since the Brahmaputra river crosses over the Sino-Indian border, it is crucial for both of the world’s most densely populated countries, India and China. The importance of Brahmaputra for India can be understood from the fact that it provides 30% freshwater supply and 40% of India’s total hydroelectric power. Even though the Brahmaputra River has a very meagre impact on China’s total freshwater supply, it is also significant to Tibet’s agricultural and energy sector. With increasing population and demand and limited water resources, both India and China would want to harness the power of the Brahmaputra River.
For this, China reportedly approved what would be the world’s largest hydroelectric project on Tibet’s longest river Yarlung Tsangpo (which flows downstream as the Brahmaputra in India) last year. The world’s largest hydropower dam with an estimated cost of 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) would be built in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which becomes Siang in India’s Arunachal Pradesh. The river becomes the Brahmaputra River after it merges with two other rivers in Assam.
Meanwhile, the Indian government has fast-tracked the development of an 11,000 MW hydropower project in the Upper Subansiri region, which would assist in improving water management and electricity production. It is also a response to China’s upstream activities, thereby letting India gain better control of its water resources while alleviating the adverse impacts that may result from China’s dam.
Notably, China only accounts for 22-30% of the overall basin discharge, despite covering more than 50% of the basin’s geographical area, due to Tibet’s cold desert climate and scant annual rainfall.
A few days back, Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, issued veiled threats that India “may face difficulties” hinting that China might weaponize the Brahmaputra’s waters in support of its “all-weather friend” Pakistan. However, CM Sarma’s explanation indicates that even if China decides to enter the water war from Pakistan’s side, it will not have any detrimental impact on India, although such a misadventure would not go without consequences for China and Pakistan.
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