Operation Rising Lion and the strategic collapse of Iran: West Asia stands at the cusp of a major change, as does the world

In the early days of June 2025, history did not just repeat itself—it did something more. After decades of shadow warfare, strategic proxies, cyber intrusions, and targeted assassinations, Israel and Iran have finally entered what can now be unambiguously termed as a state of war. The operations that have unfolded over the past 5 days, dubbed ‘Operation Rising Lion’ by Israel and ‘True Promise 3’ by Iran, have already reshaped the regional order—and potentially, the global one.

What we are witnessing is not just a flare-up. It is a paradigm shift.

A war years in the making

For years, Iran and Israel have been caught in a cold war of high stakes, played out in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and even cyberspace. The strikes, sabotage, and assassinations—of nuclear scientists, IRGC commanders, and Israeli diplomats—have long been preludes to a larger showdown. However, today, that simmering hostility has boiled over into a full-scale war.

Israel’s first wave of strikes, reportedly hitting 170 targets and over 720 military infrastructure across Iran within first 3 days of the operation, is nothing short of astounding. Consider the logistical and strategic mastery required to hit targets 1,600 kilometres away from home. These are numbers not just for battlefield headlines but for military textbooks.

This is modern warfare executed with historic precision.

From containment to regime change

Initially, the public rationale from Israel was predictable—cripple Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, very quickly, the goals have evolved. Today, it is no longer only about nuclear containment. Elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei and regime change in Iran have been added as goals of the operation. A goal once whispered in corridors of Tel Aviv is now manifesting through guided munitions and decapitation strikes.

Just as Operation Iraqi Freedom started with weapons of mass destruction and ended with Saddam Hussein dangling from a rope, and just as Libya transitioned from no-fly zones to the lynching of Gaddafi, Iran now faces a similar arc. What began with nuclear bunkers is now aimed at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime itself.

Israel’s doctrine of strategic decapitation

Israel does not fight drawn-out wars. It does not aim to occupy lands or engage in endless battles. It targets systems. It eliminates leadership, disrupts command chains, and induces paralysis into the heart of enemy operations.

Within 72 hours of the conflict, over 20 senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists were eliminated. Iran’s Missile Commander Mohammad Bagheri and Intel Chief Gholam-Reza Marhabi were among the dead. These are not just names. They are institutional memories—repositories of decades of experience and strategy. With them gone, Iran is not just losing the battle; it is losing continuity, doctrine, and initiative.

Strategic setback, not just tactical losses

The psychological dimension of this war cannot be undermine. After neutralizing Iran’s air defense systems, energy infrastructure, and chain of command, Israel is now conducting psychological warfare on the Iranian population. The strikes are designed not just to destroy military and nuclear infrastructure but to instil fear, uncertainty, and hopelessness. Moreover, it is working. People in Tehran are leaving their homes due to this psychological fear of being hit by Israel.

While Iran fails to give a meaningful response, Israel not only retains its air superiority but also controls the narrative. Perception warfare is a battleground in itself, and Israel, supported by the US, UK, and France, dominates it with clarity and consistency.

The wider geostrategic implications

Beyond Israel and Iran, there is a silent third party absorbing the consequences: China. Iran has been a key player in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in West Asia, with significant infrastructure and energy investments. The crippling of Iran’s energy network and regional influence is, indirectly, a blow to China’s strategic ambitions.

Could this war be, in part, an effort to undermine China’s rising footprint in West Asia? It is plausible. Just as the Cold War saw regional conflicts serve superpower agendas, this new multipolar world sees economic corridors becoming battlegrounds.

What if Iran survives? or falls?

The war seems to be approaching a six-day climax—mirroring the 1967 Six-Day War, but this time with a nuclear undercurrent. If Iran’s regime collapses, we might witness the most significant reshaping of West Asia since the Arab Spring. Ironically, a peaceful region might emerge—not because grievances were resolved, but because no other state or group would have the means to challenge Israel.

However, there is another possibility: a nuclear Iran. Should Netanyahu fail to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capacity fully—and if the regime somehow survives—Tehran might conclude that the only way to avoid future annihilation is by rushing to acquire the bomb. In this case, deterrence would be restored, albeit in a much more volatile form.

Moreover, here is the paradox: Peace may come either through regime collapse or nuclear deterrence. There seems to be no middle ground.

Why Israel Can Get Away With It

Israel’s boldness is not without reason. It has unmatched air power, a strong domestic defense system (Iron Dome, David’s Sling), nuclear capability, and the unwavering support of Washington and its NATO allies. Despite some damage within its borders, Israeli infrastructure remains intact and resilient.

In contrast, Iran today stands isolated. Russia, embroiled in its own battles in Ukraine, has no bandwidth. China watches silently. The Arab world, while publicly condemning, is privately relieved to see Iran weakened. And Hezbollah and Assad? They have already been neutralized during Israel’s long-term campaign to eliminate regional deterrence.

The new face of modern war

What we are seeing is the emergence of a new warfare doctrine, one where conflict is short, targeted, and system-shattering. Wars are no longer about trenches and timelines—they are about disabling leadership, infrastructure, and psychological resilience.

This is not retaliation. This is strategic collapse—disassembling a nation’s ability to wage war or even govern itself.

When analysts and historians reflect on these events in the coming years, Operation Rising Lion may be remembered not just as a turning point in the Iran-Israel rivalry but as the moment a regional superpower rewrote the rules of warfare.

Moreover, for the Iranian people, caught between a regime they did not choose and a war they cannot stop, history once again shows its indifference to individual lives in the face of geopolitical tectonics.

Anmol Kumar is Assistant Editor at Defence and Security Alert Magazine

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