BJP’s rise sparks fierce triangular contest
The Ludhiana (West) bypoll, scheduled for June 19, has turned into a triangular contest where the BJP’s rising influence can disrupt the fortunes of either the Congress or the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
During the 2024 General Election, the BJP polled 45,000 votes in Ludhiana (West) segment — around 14,000 and 22,000 more votes than the Congress and AAP, respectively.
This bypoll carries significant weight for AAP, as it’s speculated that Sanjeev Arora’s Rajya Sabha seat may be vacated for party’s national convener Arvind Kejriwal, who lost the Delhi Assembly elections. Thus, Kejriwal has been campaigning intensely, making Ludhiana (West) a crucial test of AAP’s urban appeal. A loss here could further weaken party’s standing in Punjab.
Congress’ Bharat Bhushan Ashu, former minister, is relying on his past governance record to reclaim the seat, which he lost in 2022 to AAP’s Gurpreet Gogi by 7,512 votes in an election that saw 64.4 per cent voter turnout.
BJP leader Ravneet Bittu’s popularity will also be tested. Despite losing the Ludhiana Lok Sabha seat to the Congress’ Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, Bittu led from this Assembly segment.
After becoming the Union Minister of State for Railways, his performance would indicate whether his ministerial role has strengthened his influence. BJP’s Jiwan Gupta, who is campaigning aggressively, hopes to build on his ground work for years in this area.
Moreover, AAP’s loss in the 2024 Barnala bypoll has added to the uncertainty surrounding its prospects in Ludhiana (West). AAP’s candidate Harinder Singh Dhaliwal was defeated by Congress’ Kuldeep Singh Dhillon by a margin of 2,157 votes.
Barnala — a stronghold of AAP since 2014 — was lost due to internal discord in party. The denial of a ticket to local leader Gurdeep Singh Baath and Congress’ resurgence contributed to AAP’s defeat. Baath, who ran as an Independent and secured nearly 17,000 votes.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) enters this election after facing multiple controversies, including internal party disputes and opposition to the Punjab government’s land pooling policy. The party has also undergone a new membership drive, which it hopes would help assess its political standing in Punjab.
With SAD struggling to regain lost ground, whatever votes it secures in this bypoll are expected to be organic, reflecting its core support base rather than any external influence. The result would be crucial in determining whether the Akali Dal can rebuild its presence in Punjab politics.
The BJP would also count on the success of Operation Sindoor and leverage national security narrative to consolidate urban voters.
Adding to the intrigue is the undercurrent about how money power could play a rule in this bypoll.
Allegations have surfaced that gifts, including electronic items, were distributed among voters to influence preferences. While there is no official confirmation, the presence of financial incentives is being widely discussed in political circles.
Further, there’s speculation that supporters of some parties could engage in cross-voting to strategically keep either the Congress or AAP out of power.
With just a year-and-a-half left before the 2027 Assembly Election, the Ludhiana (West) bypoll is seen as a political barometer that could shape future strategies and alliances.
Punjab