Is Iran saving its ballistic missiles for ‘final fight’?

Even as the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict enters its sixth day, there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of missiles that Iran is using to attack Israel.

 

On June 13, the first day of the conflict, Iran had fired a barrage of more than 150 missiles in response to the Israeli attack earlier in the day—even lower than the about 200 missiles it had fired in October 2024 to retaliate for Israel’s targeted killing of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. And from June 13 onwards, there has been drastic reduction. On June 17, Iran fired just 10 missiles.

 

Of course, Israel’s effective air defence system—comprising the Iron Dome (meant to intercept low-altitude rockets and projectiles), David’s Sling and Arrow systems, the hugely-expensive Patriot and THAAD missile systems—intercepted about 90 per cent of the missiles with only 35 out of 400 Iranian missiles making impact.

 

Two main theories on the declining missile usage by Iran are doing the rounds.

 

First, Israel may have destroyed a substantial number of missile launchers during the first day of the attack. On June 17, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it had destroyed “about half” of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers. About half would be more than 200 launchers. The IDF also said that Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile had also depleted by between 35-45 per cent due to the Israeli attacks. Iran was believed to have possessed about 2,000 ballistic missiles but then what number of missiles Tehran may have hidden in underground bases is anybody’s guess.

 

Second, Iran may be preserving its missiles for a final fight which may even see the US being on the warfront with Israel.

 

US President Donald Trump warning Tehran to ‘surrender’, his abrupt departure from the ongoing G-7 Summit in Canada on Tuesday, and his prolific posts on social media platform ‘Truth Social’ may be indicative of a potential direct US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.

 

Already reports speak of US forces being moved to West Asia and areas in its vicinity. Besides, the USS Nimitz carrier strike group set to reach the conflict-torn region soon from its earlier deployment in the South China Sea, reports also speak of at least 21 refuelling tanker aircraft of the US Air Force being moved to Europe from the US so as to be closer to the theatre of war in order to “provide options to defend US assets and interests….” 

Middle East