“Iranians will suffer most”: Ex-Pentagon official on possible closure of Strait of Hormuz

Washington, DC [USA], June 22 (ANI): Former Pentagon official Michael Rubin has noted that Iran would “suffer the most" if it tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, adding that any disruption would not last more than few days. His remarks come in the wake of the US bombing of three nuclear installations in Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The strait is deep enough and wide enough to handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers

Rubin said that closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway and among the most crucial oil route of the world, might cause a short-term disruptions in the oil supply to several countries and to some degree in India.

“Forty-four per cent of the fuel that goes through the Strait of Hormuz ends up in Asia, most of that in China, but also to some degree in India, and so there might be a short disruption. However, there is an ability to have an alternate supply."

“The United States is a major supplier right now. Saudi Arabia can ship fuel across the Arabian Peninsula to Yanbu. The United Arab Emirates has a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and goes into the Gulf of Oman. Also, remember that Iran needs to import gasoline. So the Iranians might rhetorically talk about closing the Strait of Hormuz, but militarily, they cannot do that for more than a day," Rubin told ANI emphasising the alternatives to bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

He stated that if Tehran tried to shut the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, it would be “committing suicide."

“Beyond that, they would be committing suicide. Their own economy and their own military would wither away should they try to close the Strait of Hormuz… Iranians will be the ones who will suffer most. There might be a spike in oil prices but I don’t suspect that it is going to last for three or four days given that so many countries have spare capacities," the former Pentagon official said.

US President Donald Trump in an address from the White House on Saturday (local time) announced that the US had bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran. This statement followed a possible threat by Iran to close the strategically vital trade route in response.

Jonathan Schanzer, a former US Treasury official and expert on terror financing, warned that any move to close the Strait of Hormuz at this time would met with “unbelievable" force from the United States

“…Any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz right now will be met with probably unbelievable force from the United States. Now that this has started, it’s not that difficult to imagine the French or the Brits coming in to clear the lanes… I see the Iranians as being absolutely suicidal if they go down this route, and I do get a sense that we could be at a pivotal moment here. It doesn’t mean that Iran won’t try to attack, but I think asymmetrically is much more likely than through conventional means," the former US Treasury official told ANI.

On Saturday (local time) United States launched an attack on three nuclear sites in Iran amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. In his first public remarks since carrying out ‘precision’ strikes in Iran, Trump warned that he could order further action if Tehran does not agree to a satisfactory peace agreement.

As per a report in CNN which cited a US official, the US used six B-2 bombers to drop a dozen “bunker buster" bombs on the Fordow nuclear site. Navy submarines fired 30 TLAM cruise missiles at two other sites, Natanz and Isfahan, and a B2 dropped two bunker busters on Natanz, the official said.

The underground site at Fordow and the larger Natanz plant were Iran’s two primary uranium enrichment facilities, out of which Natanz had already been hit by Israel with smaller weapons earlier in the week, the New York Times reported. (ANI)

(The story has come from a syndicated feed and has not been edited by the Tribune Staff.)

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