Israel-Iran ceasefire in peril as trust deficit persists

US President Donald Trump seems to have started believing that a truce is a low-hanging fruit simply waiting to be plucked by him anytime, anywhere. Just a month and a half after he announced to the world that India and Pakistan had agreed to a ceasefire at America’s behest, he made a similar declaration regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. But things were quickly back to square one as Israel and Iran persisted with hostilities amid a glaring trust deficit. Frustrated at the ceasefire violations by both sides, Trump admitted that he was “really unhappy” with Israel. And he even warned Tel Aviv, for a change, to mend its ways and see reason. The million-dollar question is: Will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu listen to his friend Trump and exercise restraint, which has never been his strong suit?

The US President is desperate to ensure that the Israel-Iran agreement survives. If it collapses, his gambit of ordering airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites would be exposed as a monumental blunder. Tehran’s retaliatory missile attack on a US military base in Qatar has perhaps made Trump realise that he has bitten off more than he can chew. That explains his overzealousness to make the two sides agree to a “complete and total ceasefire”. Netanyahu has claimed that Israel has achieved all of its war goals in the 12-day operation against Iran, including removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. The Iranian leadership, which has undoubtedly been hit hard, faces the onerous task of reasserting its legitimacy and dominance.

Sustainable peace in the region hinges on Israel and the US keeping their foot off the pedal. As of now, regime change in Iran seems to have been put on the back-burner. This gives Iran an opportunity to quietly pick up the pieces. Much will depend on how long a badly bruised Tehran takes to recover and pose a fresh challenge to Israel.

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