Analyst explains why China decided to stay away from Israel-Iran war: 'The suspicion is mutual'

While the Israel-Iran war was playing out in the Middle East, China, despite being a giant Asian power, opted to stay away from the conflagration. Though it was instrumental in brokering peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023, Beijing didn't attempt to mediate peace nor take any initiative to supply weapons to its major ally Iran.

According to Middle East analyst Henry Storey, China lacked the potential to get entangled in Middle Eastern wars and the bandwidth to be a truly global security player. In an article published at the Australian think tank Lowy Institute, Storey says China has reportedly supplied Iran with precursor materials used for ballistic missiles but never tried to sell military wares directly. 

Though China's oil needs, over 14 per cent, are being met by Iranian oil, China’s relationship with Iran has always been "transactional and more than a little superficial", Storey says, adding that Beijing has no interest in seeing a nuclear-armed Iran. "China has benefited more than most from the status quo in the Middle East," he says, adding that Beijing has reasons to be wary of Iran’s hegemonic ambitions. 

"The suspicion is mutual," the analyst argues citing how the then Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad described draft versions of the Iran-China 25-year Cooperation Program deal as "suspicious and secretive". 

Beijing's close ties with Iran's regional foes UAE and Saudi Arabia have also irked Iran. Last year, Tehran didn't shy away from displaying its anger when China endorsed UAE’s claim over disputed Iranian-held islands in the Persian Gulf. Beijing also feels suspicious about Iran's constant threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which Chinese ships traverse.

China is also aware of the risks in the Middle Eastern wars, intervening in brokering conflicts in its immediate sphere of influence where its core interests are most directly threatened, Storey adds. 

Besides, China cannot also invest in tools of distant power projection, including aircraft carriers. It also lacks the formidable network of regional bases maintained by the United States. 

Middle East