Is The World Headed Towards A Nuclear Conflagration?

Now that another Trumpean peace has been declared in the Middle East, the world can breathe a sigh of relief. We have witnessed two wars in quick succession. The short-duration India-Pakistan war and the Israel-Iran war, which lasted twelve long days and has caused tremendous damage to both life and infrastructure. While the exact extent of the damage is still being assessed, controversy prevails on the extent of damage caused to Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan by the US bombing, where, for the first time, 13,600 kg GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker buster bombs, which penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete, were used in modern warfare.

Trump, in his usual blustering style, has claimed that all three facilities, especially Fordow, which is capable of housing 3,000 centrifuges, were completely `obliterated’. The Pentagon’s main intelligence arm, the Defence Intelligence Agency, claimed the attacks had only `degraded’ these sites and that they would be in a position to restart their programme in the next one to two months. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, however, admitted on Wednesday that their nuclear installations had been badly damaged.

Prior to this statement, the Iranian government claimed that most of the highly enriched uranium stored at the Fordow nuclear facility had been moved to undisclosed locations ahead of the US strikes. The number of personnel at these sites had also been reduced to a minimum.

Another major development in Iran has been Iran Parliament’s discussion on a bill whereby they will suspend all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which they feel has played a bipartisan role in these recent developments and made little attempt to ensure the safety of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The IAEA’s findings three weeks ago, warning that Iran was hiding its nuclear ambition and was only a few notches away from making a nuclear bomb, served as the trigger for these Israeli attacks. Most nuclear scientists and American intelligence had sources who believed otherwise, claiming that Iran was several months away from making a bomb.

Knowing full well that the situation in the Middle East is so volatile, the IAEA should have been more careful, especially when Iran is a member of the IAEA and also a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It is too early to understand what the repercussions of Iran’s exit from the IAEA will mean and how it will be interpreted by both the US and Israel. The situation is fluid, and we will have to wait and watch.

The IAEA has been consistent in its warning about the increased risks of radiological and chemical contamination at sites like Natanz, even though these were underground facilities. The IAEA had also issued a warning against widespread radioactive contamination in the event of an attack on the Tehran Nuclear Research Reactor and on the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor.

Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow at London think tank RUSI, said attacks on facilities at the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle—the stages where uranium is prepared for use in a reactor—pose primarily chemical, not radiological, risks. What scientists are concerned about is when UF6, or uranium hexafluoride, escapes into the atmosphere and interacts with water vapour in the air, it produces deadly chemicals. There is always the risk of harmful, life-threatening chemicals being dispersed in the atmosphere, although the risk is lower for underground facilities.

Environmentalists maintain that underground radiation exposure is also dangerous. Most water sources emanate from underground springs, and nuclear radiation could well contaminate our water sources, thereby affecting living organisms in that region.  We have witnessed several nuclear disasters in the past, the most prominent being the Chernobyl disaster, which led to the death of 39 people and saw six lakh people, involved in firefighting and cleanup operations, getting exposed to high levels of radiation. Many since have been known to have died of cancer.

The US did not hesitate to ring the nuclear alarm bells during the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan post the Pahalgam massacre. And although the Director General of Air Operations, Air Marshal AK Bharti, had denied the Indian armed forces having targeted the nuclear facility at Kirana Hills in Pakistan, the US obviously believed otherwise. Intense speculation remains on whether India struck the Mushaf Airbase in Sargodha, reportedly linked to underground nuclear storage beneath the Kirana Hills, and the extent of damage inflicted on the Nur Khan base near Islamabad, which is in close proximity to Pakistan’s nuclear command and control centres. The US believed an attack on Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure would increase escalation to dangerous levels.

But the real cat-and-mouse game is presently being played out around Europe's largest nuclear facility, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), located on the river Dnieper in Ukraine.

The Russian troops seized the plant in March 2022, but with Ukrainian forces stationed across the river, the plant has been caught in a crossfire, and this despite several warnings issued by the IAEA. A drone attack by the Ukrainian forces in May 2024 caused a fire in the ZNPP, leading the IAEA to describe the situation at the plant as 'very fragile'.

The drone attack had damaged a cooling tower, causing a fire from which black smoke billowed for several hours. Fortunately, the fire was extinguished, and since all six reactors had been shut down earlier, the IAEA officials did not detect any spike in radiation levels.

The IAEA's warnings that such 'reckless attacks are increasing the risk of a nuclear accident’ cannot be underestimated. Other experts on nuclear safety believe that the situation in ZPPP was very dire, pointing out that the drone attack that had caused the fire at the cooling tower plant, causing water levels in the plant to fall substantially, was made worse by frequent attacks on the electricity supply to the plant.

The ZPP plant has suffered eight losses of off-site power since the seizure, forcing it to rely temporarily on emergency diesel generators. Its spent fuel pools are stored in cooling pools inside the reactor containers, but this is not the case with the dry cask storage areas. These contain radioactive waste and are located outside the containment area and could get hit and crack open, thereby releasing radioactive material into the atmosphere.

The example of Fukushima is before the world when, on March 11, 2011, a massive tsunami affected the electricity supply and damaged the backup generators at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. A missile hit or aerial bombardment can lead to dry casks opening, which would immediately release radioactive material into the atmosphere.

Putin has repeatedly warned of nuclear war if NATO troops are sent to Ukraine. Most nuclear scientists across the globe believe there is little chance of Putin hitting the nuclear button. But the continued war in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine and the increasing use of advanced weaponry could result in escalation.

The US intervened to stop the Indo-Pakistan conflict, fearing it could develop into a nuclear fracas, but it has no apprehensions about bombing nuclear facilities when they believe it suits their own geopolitical interests. Even as far back as World War 2, the US did not concern itself with the consequences of its nuclear action when it bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The Indo-Pak conflict, the Israel-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict all have their nuclear dimensions, which cannot be underestimated. We need to steer clear of such conflict because a nuclear conflagration does not bode well for mankind.

Rashme Sehgal is an author and an independent journalist.

news