The Fragile Ceasefire in West Asia: India’s Strategic Stakes

Maj Gen BK Sharma (Retd)

“In just three days, missiles flew, oil prices spiked, and the world held its breath. Now, a fragile ceasefire in West Asia has paused the fighting, but for India, the consequences are far from over.”

Israel’s operation Rising Lion on June 13 had killed many of Iran’s senior generals, nuclear scientists and neutralised a large portion of Iranian air defences and enrichment facilities at Natanz and Isfahan. On June 22, 2025, West Asia edged precariously close to a regional inferno.In a coordinated operation codenamed Midnight Hammer, U.S. B-2 stealth bombers, armed with Bunker Busting Bombs, Tomahawk missiles and Israeli fighter jets, launched precision strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, explicitly targeting the subterranean Fordow enrichment complex, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. President Donald Trump publicly celebrated the mission as a “surgical dismantling of a global threat.”. In a swift reprisal, Iran unleashed a barrage of over 200 missiles, targeting key Israeli sites, including energy nodes, urban centres, and most provocatively, the Dimona nuclear facility. Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow defence systems neutralised the majority of the missiles. Reports later confirmed that Dimona sustained structural damage, with its core systems remaining intact. Tehran also struck a US military base named Al-Udeid in Qatar, though the strike was more symbolic than lethal.

A tenuous ceasefire has been announced, but it is prone to rupture given the level of mistrust and strategic brinkmanship between the three intransigent contestants. Informed media sources suggest that the much hyped US B2 bomber strikes could, at worst, have delayed Iran’s nuclear ambition by a few months. The prospects of Iran bouncing back with a vengeance to develop a nuclear bomb look plausible. And that may trigger a new phase of conflict between the warring sides. This uneasy interlude may soon fracture-its strategic tremors already reverberating across energy conduits, diplomatic circles, and India’s core national interests.

India’s economy is perilously vulnerable to energy shocks. With over 85 per cent of crude oil imported, mainly from the Gulf, the mere threat of regional escalation sent Brent crude prices up nearly 10 per cent. Insurers hiked premiums, and Indian refiners began absorbing higher costs, which nudged inflation and widened the trade deficit. Should hostilities resume, Iran could easily target the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the global oil supply passes. India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves offer temporary insulation, but they are finite in nature. Russian oil, while politically expedient, cannot match the Gulf’s volume or logistical viability. For a country chasing 7per cent annual growth, this is no longer a red flag- it’s a strategic alarm bell.

India’s Gulf diaspora-over nine million live and work in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Their annual remittances, in the billions of dollars, sustain countless Indian households. Yet in the event of a regional conflagration, these communities become invisible hostages to geopolitical upheavals. If Iran retaliates against U.S. bases in the region or Israel conducts fresh strikes with collateral fallout, Indian expatriates could be trapped in the line of fire. While India’s record in emergency evacuations-be it Kuwait (1990) or Yemen (2015) and now from Israel and Iran has been exemplary, real-time coordination amid mounting chaos is a far more complex scenario. With Gulf countries wary of public panic, evacuations could become diplomatically sensitive. India’s embassies have activated contingency planning, but the ceasefire’s instability means any new incident could test the limits of logistical capacity and political resolve. Any casualties or delays in rescue efforts will have serious domestic repercussions.

India’s Chabahar Port in Iran, a cornerstone of its regional connectivity agenda, is mired in uncertainty. Developed as an alternative gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, Chabahar was meant to anchor India’s International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).However, renewed conflict has once again put Chabahar on geopolitical fault lines. If U.S. sanctions are tightened after the strikes, India’s presence and investments in the project could come under scrutiny. More worryingly, an isolated Tehran may lean deeper into China’s orbit, inviting Chinese capital and strategic control over Chabahar, undermining India’s leverage and diminishing its counterweight to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).There is a significant dilemma: either abandon ground hard-won over two decades or recalibrate engagement through diplomatic manoeuvring and economic recalibration.

India has long practised a delicate multi-vector engagement -defence collaboration with Israel, strategic convergence with the U.S., and civilizational goodwill with Iran. The recent crisis has exposed the intrinsic contradictions of this posture. New Delhi’s initial response was measured, calling for restraint and de-escalation from Tehran but remaining reticent on the US and Israel. Yet as global alignments shift, India may be forced into hard choices.Washington may push for public endorsements, while Iran could demand clarity on India’s regional commitments. Complicating matters further, China’s role as a potential ceasefire facilitator adds a new layer of complexity to the diplomatic situation. India cannot afford to cede more diplomatic space in West Asia to Beijing or bind with the US or Israel at the cost of facing condemnation from the Islamic countries. What India offers is its ability to act as an interlocutor, respected by all sides.However, for this to happen, India will need to shed its hesitation and become more active in its outreach to West Asia. That role, if nurtured, could redefine India’s global brand as a stabiliser in turbulent theatres.

The U.S. focus on Iran, even temporarily, dilutes its bandwidth in Asia, inviting China to intensify pressure in the South China Sea or test India’s resolve along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).Enhancing diplomatic deftness to navigate contested multipolarity and securing support from the Global South, accelerating naval domain awareness, and strengthening operational cooperation with Australia, Japan, and ASEAN partners are now vital. The Indian Navy’s forward deployments, intelligence fusion with partners, and greater interoperability in chokepoints like the Malacca Strait must form the bulwark of India’s response.The West Asian flare-up is a reminder that strategic theatres are interconnected, and vulnerabilities in one domain can ripple into another.

The 72-hour war, limited in scale but rich in signals, has placed India at a strategic crossroads. For India, the lessons are stark: diversify energy dependencies to reduce Gulf-centric risks, institutionalise diaspora protection, secure Chabahar’s future, assert quiet diplomacy in the region, and balance the Pak-China strategic nexus are the strategic imperatives meriting reflection and response.

(The author is Director General United Service Institution of India)

The post The Fragile Ceasefire in West Asia: India’s Strategic Stakes appeared first on Daily Excelsior.

News