Operation Midnight Hammer shakes Iran, rattles world order; but who will clean up the mess?

The non-contact medium has suddenly transformed from a complementary component to a full-fledged, primary domain in warfare. Operation Sindoor was the trend-setter and  Operation Midnight Hammer followed close on its heels and added more layers to it. 

 

Operation Midnight Hammer inflicted extensive damage to Iran’s military infrastructure. Iran’s nuclear weapons programme has been dealt a big blow and pushed into uncertainty. The nuclear facilities and materials at the bombarded sites may be inaccessible and irrecoverable to a large extent.

 

Having gone the full distance to Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, the US cannot now let Iran proceed with a nuclear weapon programme. Measures will be put in place to ensure constant vigil, using all means. The US will have to leave the door unlocked for future military strikes on Iran if it again starts pursuing its nuclear weapons programme. Also, boundaries will be drawn with regard to all international post-war reconstruction assistance to Iran. 

 

It may take time before the world gets to know how deep Iran’s wounds really are. Iran’s own population will be in a dilemma to choose between patriotism and confronting the reality of an even harder future. It is difficult to discern if the people at large are actually looking for a change of regime. Amidst all this, Iran is already celebrating a self-declared victory against the US and Israel. Iran clearly realises the significance of facesaving and maintaining the credibility of its supreme leader. 

 

T&C and ‘Sanctions’  as part of a package for a sustainable negotiated ceasefire deal may be in the making. But one can only speculate at this stage whether there would be a formal ceasefire deal at all and if yes, whether Iran would heed to conditions of such a deal. It is also possible that the ceasefire may just be a suspension of operation, on the lines of the suspension of Operation Sindoor by India.

 

With Iran’s tentacles and outreach capacity degraded considerably, West Asian players are quietly relieved to get back to business as usual. However, politically correct statements and posturing would continue. From the medium and long-term perspective, the Abrahamic Accord as well as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor may get a rebirth. 

 

China would reassess the power dimensions that go into becoming the ‘Numero uno’ global military power. It will also reassess and take a wider and deeper look at the Taiwan Straits. Iran is now in greater need and in a far weaker negotiating position for long-term economic and developmental assistance from China. Although Iran would grudge the way China chose to look away while it was being pounded with 14,000kg bombs as well as bunker and regime busters, it may have little choice. China, on its part, would think very hard about the sectors and depth of its investments in Iran. 

 

An Iran more antagonistic to the US is in Russia’s interest. Iran also diverts a bit of the global focus away from Ukraine.

 

For Israel, the war has considerably blunted the short and medium-term threat from Iran and the 24/7 nuisance from its proxies—the Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Monitoring Iran’s nuclear weapons programme closely has fallen firmly on the US laps. That should give Israel a great degree of comfort. 

 

Pakistan has been nominated once again to do the “Dirty Job” and the nomination was accepted gleefully by its military ambassador, Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. It may end up paying a price for this in its relations with Iran. 

 

India remains where it was—no better and no worse. The Chabahar project continues to remain near and far at the same time. If indeed Iran signs a “mutually beneficial” truce with the US, India may find ample opportunity for providing assistance. 

 

For the UN, the ignominy continues. It has been rendered irrelevant in conflict resolution. Over the decades the UN has dwarfed into an international NGO whose capacity is strictly restricted to providing humanitarian assistance alone. 

 

Donald Trump is celebrating, and for good reasons. He has dealt a telling blow to Iran and its nuclear ambitions, conveyed a message to China, gave his domestic supporters ample to feed on and has deftly forced the NATO members to jack up their defence expenditure from less than 2 per cent of their GDP to 5 per cent by 2035. The US Military Inc will celebrate long and hard. 

 

Regime change—although considered improper, unacceptable and uncivilised to admit in public—has always been an accepted and integral part of the United State’s foreign policy tools. That pretence has been dumped and now there are public assertions by heads of states seeking Ali Khamenei’s ouster and even more. 

 

Despite joining hands with Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump never hesitates in asserting and demonstrating to Israel and even to the EU, what Kissinger had famously said: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” Nominating and using ‘frontline states’ and dumping them after use is a part of this policy.

 

‘Narrative space’ emerged as a powerful dimension, both during Operation Sindoor as well as during Midnight Hammer. With its instant and limitless global outreach, social media has become a powerful tool in shaping, spreading and also faking narratives. During conflicts, the narrative space has become almost as important as the physical battlefield itself. A decisive victory on the battlefield may lose a bit of its shine if the narrative space is lost. Parameters for claiming victory through Narratives are divorced from the quantifiable parameters of assessing victory in the actual, physical battle space. An adversary, after suffering severe setbacks in the physical battlefield may continue to wage a relentless narrative war, and claim victory. Pakistan’s claims after Operation Sindoor and Iran’s after Operation Midnight Hammer are examples. The importance and need to factor in the narrative space in the national security strategy cannot be overlooked anymore.

 

Midnight Hammer was just another day in the office, for Trump. He has moved on to Rwanda and Congo, trade tariffs and taxes, the Nobel Peace Prize, the US Supreme Court's ruling curbing judges’ powers etc. Cleaning up the mess and taking issues to their logical end are not for Nobel aspirants. 

 

The question that remains is: Who will clean up the mess?

 

(The author is former deputy chief of army staff. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.)

Defence