US military supply chain has a Chinese problem: Why US defence base is not equipped for a war with China

The US military-industrial base is heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains, despite the efforts of the department of defence to advance domestic manufacturing. About one in 10 'Tier 1' suppliers or subcontractors to defence majors in the US are Chinese firms, as per a report by defence software company Govini.

 

Tier 1 suppliers refer to the direct suppliers to a manufacturer or original equipment manufacturer, offering essential components or services that are used directly in the final product.

 

Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of Govini, observed that the US defence industrial base (DIB) is not prepared enough to support the material demands of the Department of Defense in the event of a military conflict with the US.

 

In fact, a US think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) had already pointed out that "...the United States' defense industrial base would have a difficult time sustaining a protracted conflict. So would its major allies and partners in Europe and Asia."

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A Govini report, titled 'The 2025 National Security Scorecard' observed that China's three-decade-log military modernisation— with an estimated $236 billion expenditure in 2024—and Russia's industrial surge capacity—quintupling artillery shell production since 2022— starkly contrast with the US DIB, which faces chronic challenges. "Decades of consolidation, inconsistent demand, and bureaucratic rigidity have rendered it slow to react, lacking the fundamental capacity, responsiveness, flexibility, and resilience required for sustained, high-intensity warfare across multiple theaters," the report had claimed.

 

While domestic suppliers and supplies from friendly nationals dominate the highly sensitive nuclear deterrent modernisation, Chinese 'Tier 1 suppliers' to various other defence-related industries range from 8 to 11 per cent, according to the report.

 

According to a Breaking Defence breakdown of the Govini scorecard, Chinese firms made up of 11.1 per cent of the subcontractors in missile defence, 10.6 per cent in munitions, 10.1 per cent in maritime, 9.0 in mission support and 7.8 in nuclear.

 

Dougherty noted that the defence supply chains are very "intricately tied to foreign suppliers" and said, "The data is unequivocal: The United States is not prepared for the war that we may have to enter if China said, ‘today is the day'.....“It’s not that I think we would automatically lose — by no means do I think that’s the case — but I do not believe that the industrial base is prepared to support the material demands of the department of defense.”

Defence