The Thackeray Cousins May Put Up Optics But Won't Unite Politically

Much is being talked in the regional and national media about the current bonhomie seen between the estranged Thackeray cousins Uddhav and Raj. They were seen putting up media optics of unity on the issue of the imposition of the Hindi language as a compulsory subject to be introduced in schools of Maharashtra. Now, the BJP-led Mahayuti government has decided to withdraw the Government Resolution, or the GR, issued on the compulsion of Hindi, and this is being interpreted as some kind of victory for the Thackeray cousins, who had announced a rally on the issue. But the point being talked about is whether the cousins will come together politically since some groundwork has been done in terms of a joint rally to be held by both against the Maharashtra government.

The protest rally has been called off, but the Thackeray cousins are all set to put up a grand show to celebrate their so-called victory at the Worli dome in central Mumbai, where they are going to hold a "joint celebration" over the Maharashtra government's decision to withdraw the G. It is likely to be a grand event which will be covered extensively by the national media and will remain the biggest news in Maharashtra for a couple of days. The optics created here will be talked about by analysts and experts because the estranged Thakeray cousins will be seen sharing the stage after 20 long years. This will also give rise to speculations about whether the most talked-about family in Maharashtra's politics is set to unite and join forces in the upcoming polls in the state. However, many insiders say that it is too early to speculate such a thing, and most of them, from both sides of the political divide, feel that though the Thackeray cousins may provide exciting optics and television visuals to the media this weekend, they may not actually unite politically in the upcoming elections.

What is at stake right now are the all-important BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation, or BMC, polls, which will happen just after the monsoon season. In about three to four months, the BMC, the 12/14 other municipal corporations in Maharashtra, and over 25 district councils in the state go to polls. This is almost like a mini state assembly poll, a test for everybody to gauge their strength and check where they stand. The BJP seems to be thinking of going into the polls solo, without an alliance with their Mahayuti partners. This serves the purpose in two ways: first, they can keep their party cadre happy by distributing tickets to all those who are aspiring for one; and second, they can test whether they should go into the 2029 assembly polls without taking partners, such as Eknath Shinde, along! In this, it is very important for the BJP to ensure that the opposition remains divided and players such as Uddhav and Raj Thackeray cut into each other's votes.

There are many reasons why Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray are not likely to unite politically ahead of the BMC polls. First, the BJP insiders have told us, off the record, that the party will go out of the way to ensure that the estranged cousins do not join hands politically and that they field candidates in the upcoming Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai municipal polls against each other. Second, some Shiv Sena (UBT) insiders say that as soon as some talk about the Thackeray cousins coming together took place, a few meetings happened between the deputies of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. Leaders from both sides, such as Varun Sardesai and Sandeep Deshpande, met casually, though formal meetings did not take place. What is being revealed is that Raj Thackeray's party has demanded a 50% share of seats in the BMC and TMC polls if Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) are to join hands. This is not likely to be acceptable to Shiv Sena (UBT). The party won 86 seats out of 227 BMC seats in the last polls, and six out of seven who won on MNS tickets joined Shiv Sena (UBT). Now, Uddhav Thackeray will be in no mood to give away 50% of seats to Raj Thakeray's MNS. Third, it seems clear that the area of influence of Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackery's MNS is going to be the same. Both parties have their strongholds in the Marathi-dominated areas like Girgaum, Dadar, Worli, Prabhadevi, Chembur, Vikhroli, Bhandup, Mulund and parts of the Western Suburbs. How will they be able to successfully and amicably divide seats in these areas? It seems next to impossible.

Insiders from Raj Thackeray's party say there is too much pressure from the BJP on them to do certain things and not to do certain things. It is obvious that for the BJP, the upcoming polls of Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai municipal corporations are very important, and there is no way they will allow the opposition to unite against them ahead of these polls. There are many ways in which the BJP is likely to apply pressure on the MNS leadership to ensure they reject unification with the Shiv Sena (UBT), insiders claim. All said and done, the coming weekend may provide exciting, emotional and dramatic visuals and optics to the news media, with the Thackeray cousins putting up a joint show. However, this unity is likely to remain only emotional, and the cousins are most likely to forget these stage performances and fight each other in the political field in the upcoming civic polls of Maharashtra!

Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.

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