Pentagon says US strikes set back Iran’s nuclear program by up to two Years

On 2nd July, Wednesday, the Pentagon declared that U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have delayed the country’s nuclear program by one to two years, asserting the operation achieved its primary objective despite conflicting assessments from international watchdogs and earlier U.S. intelligence reports.

During a press briefing, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell stated, “We have degraded their program by one to two years, at least, intel assessments inside the Department of Defence assess that.”

Internal Defence Department intelligence reviews concluded the 22nd June strikes, involving B-2 stealth bombers delivering massive “bunker-buster” bombs and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, severely damaged Iran’s capabilities.

“We’re thinking probably closer to two years.” He further said that the three targeted facilities (Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan) were “completely obliterated” and asserted the strikes may have damaged Iran’s ambition to build a nuclear weapon.

The U.S. assessment hinges on the destruction of critical infrastructure needed for uranium enrichment and bomb development. Parnell emphasized the psychological impact of the 37-hour non-stop bomber mission alongside physical damage .

  • Conflicting Assessments: The Pentagon’s revised timeline contrasts sharply with a preliminary Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report leaked shortly after the strikes, which suggested the setback might only be months, not years. That early, low-confidence assessment indicated key centrifuges remained intact and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) likely survived, potentially having been moved before the attacks. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), cautioned, stating Iran could resume enriching uranium “in a matter of months” due to its retained technical knowledge.
  • Iran’s Response and Uncertainty: Iranian officials acknowledged significant damage, particularly at the underground Fordow site, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed President Trump’s “obliterated” claims as exaggerated. Verification remains extremely difficult. Satellite imagery shows surface damage and craters, but it cannot confirm the status of deeply buried facilities. Furthermore, Iran’s parliament has suspended all cooperation with the IAEA, cutting off independent monitoring and leaving the program “in the dark”. The location and integrity of Iran’s HEU stockpile, crucial for any weaponisation effort, remain a major unknown.

Geopolitical context

The U.S. strikes occurred during a 12-day conflict initiated by Israeli attacks on Iranian targets. President Trump announced a ceasefire hours after Iran retaliated against a U.S. base in Qatar. While both the U.S. and Israeli governments claim victory and significant degradation of Iran’s nuclear threat, Tehran insists its nuclear and missile programs endure. The State Department has condemned Iran’s suspension of IAEA access as “unacceptable” .

The Pentagon maintains its assessment is ongoing, but stands firmly behind the view that the strikes delivered a significant, multi-year blow to Iran’s nuclear progress.

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