Danger Zone

THE trail of destruction in Himachal Pradesh during the 2023 monsoon season was more than a wake-up call; it was a clear signal to pause and reassess where its model of development was leading the hill state. Environmentalists and experts spoke in no uncertain terms about how Himachal urgently needed strategies to pull itself out of the hole it had dug for itself. The first few weeks of the monsoon this year have proven that the worst fears are coming true. There is now inevitability attached to widespread destruction and loss of life whenever the skies open up.

Since the onset of the monsoon season on June 20, torrential rains, cloudbursts and flash floods have claimed 69 lives while 37 persons are reported missing, mostly in Thunag area of Mandi.

The damage suffered by the state has been pegged at nearly Rs 700 crore, and it’s just the beginning of the rainy season. The horrifying images of a five-storeyed building collapsing at Battakufar in Dhalli, on the outskirts of capital Shimla, has set alarm bells ringing. Many other houses face the threat of collapse, especially at sites along the four-laning work by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI).

The regular incidence of cloudbursts and flash floods is being attributed to climate change. The districts of Kullu, Mandi, Shimla, Chamba and Kinnaur are the worst hit by the severity of erratic weather changes, a decade-old trend which has become an annual feature.

The state government is contemplating roping in the Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, to study this weather phenomena. There has been a spurt in cloudburst incidents in the last decade, especially in the Sutlej and Beas basins, as is evident from the catastrophe in Kullu-Manali during the 2023 monsoon season and in the Samej area of Rampur in 2024.

The Institute of Tropical Meteorology has now sought the approval of the Union Ministry of Earth Science. A team of officials from the State Disaster Management Authority had recently visited Pune to hold talks. A team of experts from Pune will visit the cloudburst-affected areas to ascertain the causes and suggest ways to minimise the damage.

This year, right at the onset of rains, 14 incidents of cloudburst were reported from Siyanj, Bada, Kelodhar, Bassi, Parwara and Majhwar in Gohar area of Mandi; Pakhrair, Pandav Sheela, Dhar Jarol and Kelti at Thunag in Mandi; Triyambla and Bhadrana in Dharampur area of Mandi; Mosuma Doje in Rakchham area of Kinnaur; Kutti Nallah, Old Bazaar and Rikki Imla Khud in Karsog area of Mandi; and Kutah, Lassi Mod and Patokari also in Thunag area of Mandi.

Dr Varun Dutt, professor at IIT-Mandi, says the July 1 cloudbursts that hit parts of Mandi can be termed a weather ‘pile-up’. “A pulse of very moist monsoon air from the Arabian Sea ran into another weather wave moving west. When that soggy air slammed into Mandi’s hills, it shot upward, cooled fast, dropping nearly 20 times a normal day’s rain in just a few hours. Because the Himalayan air column is now warmer, it can store more water vapour, so these sudden downpours are getting easier to trigger.”

He says to minimise risk, the IIT-Mandi team recently installed low-cost ‘Landslide Monitoring and Warning Systems’ at the Kotropi slide and near Parashar Lake. “These sensors send rainfall and ground-movement data and when the danger thresholds are crossed, push app and SMS alerts straight to the District Disaster Management Authority 30-60 minutes ahead of a likely severe rainfall event,” he adds.

Inviting trouble

Deforestation in the name of development, be it for hydro-power projects, cement plants, roads or hotels, has made many areas vulnerable to natural disasters, with loose soil and plants coming down as slush in case of heavy rains. Illegal dumping of muck and debris from mega projects, especially road construction, is posing a threat following heavy rains.

Unsustainable tourism, with most hill towns buckling under the pressure of teeming tourists, vehicles and garbage way beyond their carrying capacity, is only making matters worse.

Haphazard construction activity, either on the river banks or very close to the river bed, has become a norm despite such structures being washed away every monsoon. The wanton disregard for any adherence to building regulations has resulted in an ugly urban sprawl, literally waiting for a disaster to happen.

The mountain ecosystem, study after study has pointed out, is most vulnerable to changing climatic patterns, with rising temperatures leading to faster glacial melting. A huge number of logs floating in the Pandoh Dam in the aftermath of the cloudburst in Thunag left many wondering as to how so many trees could have been uprooted and swept away. Amid a clamour for a probe, the State Forest Corporation dismissed speculation of massive illegal felling having taken place in the higher reaches.

counting the losses

Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu says, “In one night alone, there were almost eight to 10 cloudburst incidents in one area, which appears to be the impact of climate change. Both the Central and state governments will jointly undertake studies to understand the reason for cloudbursts, flash floods and landslides. What is most surprising is that solid rock was also swept away.”

DC Rana, Special Secretary (Revenue), says the actual damage would be far higher than preliminary estimates as the focus right now is on relief and rehabilitation. Thunag sub-division of Mandi district is the worst hit. “There is no doubt that global warming is resulting in climate change, leading to a rise in extreme weather events. There is a clear increase in the number, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events,” he adds.

Making sense of it

Dr SS Randhawa, an expert, says the incidence of cloudbursts in the last few years has baffled both meteorologists and the common man alike. This, according to him, calls for more research and data collection through various institutions located within the state and sensitisation of the different organs of the government machinery to appreciate the climate-induced impact and recast strategies and policies.

Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports warn that the mountain ecosystem is much more susceptible to the vagaries of climate change than the other regions. It poses a serious challenge to the people of mountain regions in dealing with this global threat for sustaining their economic and social development. Rising temperatures may cause mountain snow to melt early and faster in spring, shifting the timing and distribution of the runoff.

Noted environmentalist Nek Ram Sharma says he has serious reservations about four-laning road projects in Himachal as these are causing more damage than any benefit. These road projects will prove to be a bane rather than boon for Himachal in the times to come, he adds.

According to Sharma, the use of heavy machinery is causing deep cracks which results in havoc whenever there is heavy rainfall and floods. “Improving two-lane roads and widening the bottlenecks is much wiser than unsettling the hills.”

There is much to ponder over.

Recent cloudburst Incidents

— In 2023, unprecedented rains led to a trail of destruction all across the state, resulting in the death of 503 persons, and causing a loss of almost Rs 9,700 crore.

— In August 2024, there were six major incidents of cloudburst in Shimla, Kullu, Mandi, Lahaul-Spiti and Chamba; 55 lives were lost.

— This year, 14 incidents of cloudburst and three flash floods have already been reported. The casualty figure has been rising by the day.

Himachal Tribune