Op Sindoor exposes strategic gaps in foreign, defence policies
THREE days after Operation Sindoor started, India declared ceasefire. The precise extent of damage due to this operation on either side is not known as it is wrapped under the cover of secrecy. There is speculation on the loss of aircraft on the Indian side. What has surfaced is that due to instructions from the top, the Indian Air Force did not neutralise Pakistani radars and anti-aircraft systems before engaging its terrorist centres.
In addition, India’s Foreign Minister is believed to have informed Pakistan in advance of the attack on terrorist centres. That must have put the Pakistan forces at the highest state of alert, more so on their anti-aircraft systems. If so, did India’s minister not know the implication of his action?
That apart, both sides are claiming outright success. On the Pakistan side, success is highlighted by the promotion of its army chief, General Asim Munir, to the rank of Field Marshal. In India, instead of blood, red-hot Sindoor has started running in some veins and the operation is being used as a tool in the upcoming elections in Bihar.
While nearly half a dozen countries have supported Pakistan against the Indian offensive (Op Sindoor), not even one country, including our immediate neighbours, has stood by India. In no world forum has Pakistan been held as the one supporting terrorism. So much for the successes of our foreign policy. This, notwithstanding more than four dozen and over 150 trips to foreign countries costing millions of dollars by our Foreign Minister and Prime Minister, respectively. Sending seven delegations of MPs to a number of countries has made no change in their perception of ‘Op Sindoor’ and Pakistan as supporter of terrorism. So unmitigated is the failure of India’s foreign policy. Maybe, it is time for the Foreign Minister to call it a day.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is talking of taking PoK while Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir has said that that he would cut India into two. Possibly, Rajnath Singh is not fully aware of the fact that any attempt at taking PoK will lead to a full-scale war with Pakistan. Equally, he may not be fully in the picture about the state of his armed forces, particularly that of the IAF.
At the same time, Asim Munir seems unaware of the ground realities when he talks of cutting India into two. Nevertheless, he may attempt this or may try taking Kashmir, as he calls it Pakistan’s jugular vein, once the Pak army is fully equipped by China with state-of-the-art weapons and equipment.
China is fully supporting Pakistan and supplying it with high-tech military equipment, including fifth-generation fighter aircraft. Some of these were tested during Operation Sindoor. Chinese weapons will substantially enhance Pakistan’s overall operational capability. In addition, Russia, too, has started supplying military equipment to Pakistan. Further, China is enhancing Pakistan’s capabilities in such fields as cybertechnology, satellite imagery, missile systems, artificial intelligence (AI) and drone technology by training its personnel. The US is also favourably inclined towards Pakistan.
China has been increasing the presence of troops in eastern Ladakh and building military infrastructure along the LAC on the Tibet border. It wants to use Pakistan as a proxy to keep India tied down locally. China is also building a large air base in collaboration with Bangladesh in close vicinity of the Siliguri Corridor.
On the other hand, China is trying to extend a friendly hand to India, primarily because India is a large market for its goods. Such is China’s duplicity.
For a long time, India did not commit adequate resources to upgrade its defence forces and has remained focussed on anti-terrorist operations rather than create viable deterrence capability, not realising that such capability is what would deter Pakistan from continuing with its policy of inflicting a ‘thousand cuts’. The defence budgets have remained below 2 per cent of the GDP, while China has been committing 3 per cent of its GDP to defence even as its GDP is five times that of India.
India’s efforts at ‘Make in India’ have been mostly on paper. It continues to be the largest importer of defence weapons and equipment. Though, in some low-technology fields, India is exporting military equipment.
Our Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and other entities involved in this field have failed to produce worthwhile results. HAL, too, has been struggling with Tejas aircraft for decades and its engine is still being imported. Repeated calls for holding a ‘science audit’ of these establishments have been ignored. It is time to improve their working and involve private industry in the research and production of some of the high-tech military equipment. In laser technology, India seems to have made good progress. If so, then it needs to be integrated with anti-drone systems, etc.
The state of the defence forces is somewhat dismal. The Indian Air Force is down to 32 squadrons against 42 being the minimum requirement. There is no aircraft with India that can match the fifth-generation aircraft supplied by China to Pakistan.
India needs to increase the defence budget and allocation of funds to the DRDO. It must make up deficiencies in the officer cadre and other ranks. Give a fresh and objective look at the Agniveer scheme and if it is not found to be in the best interest of the army, discard it.
The recent conflicts — one between India and Pakistan (Op Sindoor), the Israel-Iran brief exchange of missiles and bombings and America’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites — have led some defence analysts to conclude that future wars would be non-contact kinetic in form. This a false assumption. In a full-scale war, this non-contact phase would be over in one or two days before the full-scale ground operations commenced. During this phase, missiles, drones, AI, cyberattacks, etc would continue to be employed. The role of the air force would gain greater relevance.
In any future war with Pakistan, China is not expected to join in, but it will give all possible support to Pakistan and make sure that India does not shift forces from the Tibet border for deployment against Pakistan.
However, Bangladesh can be expected to start some operations against India. Consequently, India will not be able to shift resources from the Tibet border and those deployed against Burma and Bangladesh. Therefore, India’s military capabilities must be built to meet this emerging situation. The upgradation of the forces’ capabilities must be given the highest priority.
Lt Gen Harwant Singh (Retd) is former Deputy Chief of Army Staff.
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