Pakistan’s woes persist amid Asim Munir’s rise
EVEN as the euphoria over his elevation as Field Marshal and his Washington lunch with US President Donald Trump ebbs, Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir faces the challenge of tackling problems plaguing the country’s economy, polity and civil society.
Eminent Punjabi police officer and author Tariq Khosa (The Faltering State, 2017) wrote in Dawn last week that there is a clear “breach of trust between the state and society”, power is being “harnessed through draconian laws, there is suppression of the media, political manoeuvres are effected through controversial constitutional benches” so that “democracy remains a mere façade”.
In June, the usual lacklustre Pakistan Budget was tabled, providing for an almost mandatory increase in defence expenditure by 20 per cent (2,550 billion Pakistani rupees or PKR), professedly only 1.97 per cent of the GDP, but shielding military pensions worth PKR 742 billion elsewhere. The total outlay was PKR 17.573 trillion, with debt servicing accounting for 8.207 trillion. Very little remained to invest in social sector spending. Though foreign exchange reserves are stated to be PKR 11.5 billion, the rollover of loans by friendly international donors account for $16 billion.
The Pakistan Supreme Court’s Constitution Bench headed by Justice Aminuddin Khan recently ruled that former PM Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was not entitled to reserved seats as only independent candidates contested the February 2024 elections. They later tried to join the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC).
In effect, this judgment gives the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and People’s Party of Pakistan (PPP) two-thirds majority in the 336-member National Assembly. The PML(N) now has 126 seats, the PPP 74, MQM-Pakistan 22 and others 13, totalling 235. The Opposition has 98 seats — the SIC/PTI 80, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) 10 and others eight — with three seats still vacant.
This has narrowed down the political battlefield to Imran versus Field Marshal Munir. Last week, Imran issued a call for a nationwide agitation after the 10th day of Muharram. His first wife, Jemima Khan, recently accused the Pakistani establishment of preventing Imran’s sons from meeting him in Adiala jail.
Imran’s party remains faction-ridden. Ali Amin Gandapur, Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, is no longer fully trusted, allegedly because of his deals with the army during earlier agitations. Rumours persist about him being eased out. Lawyer Gohar Ali Khan heads the party, but his authority is being undercut by Imran’s sister Aleema Khan, PTI’s parliamentary party leader Omar Ayub Khan or other politicians who claim to have access to both the army and Imran for a possible deal leading to his release after over two years of custody.
Lately, there have been signs of strain between the army leadership and President Asif Zardari over a leaked army engineers’ briefing about the potential of diverting the Indus waters for the Cholistan and Thar canals in south Punjab, overlapping northern Sindh. Many army officers were known to have landholdings in the Sukkur/Guddu barrage region. Sindhi politicians got a whiff of these discussions and launched a full-scale agitation against possible denial of waters to an already water-starved province.
Rumour-mongering on social media about the President’s imminent ouster was so intense that Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, regarded as close to Munir, had to issue a denial. PM Shehbaz Sharif added his own disclaimer. And the suave Bilawal Bhutto Zardari tried to present a face of reasonableness on the issue of harbouring of designated terrorists before the international media, including Indian journalists. He hopes the military leadership may one day consider him as a viable alternative, provided the PPP wins some parliamentary seats from Punjab.
Meanwhile, Munir’s position within the army has become unassailable after the four-day confrontation with India. Resentment among senior Generals about his prolonged tenure at the top will take time to fester, if at all. He has tried to give the impression that his elevation to the rank of Field Marshal was a decision taken by the PML(N)-PPP leadership that he demurely accepted.
The post of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), will fall vacant on November 29, when Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza (his term has not been extended) hangs his boots. Munir will have to decide whom to elevate to this four-star post. He will also need to bring in a new Director General (DG) of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
These changes will be keenly watched and even lobbied for among aspiring three-star officers. Munir’s most-trusted military officer, Lt Gen Asim Malik, DG, ISI, will complete four years as a three-star General in early October. He will have to retire then. Currently, he is also the National Security Adviser. He could take up this post in a civilian mantle.
The Air Force Chief, Air Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu, has also enjoyed adulation after the conflict with India. A controversial character already on extension, he has connections in the PML(N). Senior air force officers who accused him of corruption in recent purchases were court-martialled and are still languishing in jail. His recent visit to the US, close on the heels of Munir’s own, revives the possibility of the US restoring state-of-the-art military supplies, especially for the F-16s, if only to wean Pakistan away from overdependence on Chinese equipment. Any such arrangement would be kept under wraps.
Sidhu’s ambitions for a longer tenure as the Air Chief, up to 2027, could well be accommodated, but military analysts in Pakistan are less sanguine about the possibility of his filling the CJCSC post in November, as this reversion to the past practice of rotational charge could rile aspiring three-star Generals.
Quoting Khosa again, the dominant mood among people today is one of confusion and despair. “Truth is shut out, self-respect and dignity are repeatedly called into question… Academia, civil society organisations, human rights institutions lie scattered, rudderless and leaderless,” he has written. He talks of the need to forge a model that counters the authoritarian threat through non-violent agitations to restore liberal values and democracy.
This is easier said than done when the ruling dispensation is bent on ascribing all of Pakistan’s woes to India! The Army Chief’s labelling of Baloch freedom fighters and the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) as ‘Fitna (strife) al-Hindustan’ is now the official line in all Inter-Services Public Relations press releases. This raises questions about the Pakistani State as it grapples ineffectively against genuine Baloch aspirations for freedom and anti-Punjabi sentiment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, coupled with doses of Islamic radicalism and Pashtun nationalist designs of the TTP.
Rana Banerji is former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat.
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