Trust, terrain pose hurdles amid India, China de-escalation push
De-escalation. The word is back in newspaper headlines, on the ground, however, exists a hurdle, a ‘new normal’ which defines the post-April 2020 military posturing of India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
A ‘three-Ds’ step-wise approach was suggested by India to cool down tempers along the LAC. The first ‘D’, disengagement, was completed in October 2022. This entailed pulling back armed troops from an eyeball-to-eyeball deployment, to create a buffer zone to prevent accidental clashes.
The following two ‘Ds’ — that is de-escalation and de-induction — are the tougher part. The two sides are now faced with an altered reality. In the five years-plus since Chinese troops first appeared on the Line of Actual Control in the middle of Covid, India and China have militarily tailored their respective sides along the LAC. This includes the addition of thousands of troops and their living spaces, backed by drones, guns, tanks, missiles, planes helicopters and live satellite imagery.
In the past three weeks the matter of de-escalation has been raised at two separate high-level meetings between India and China. On Monday, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar at a meeting with his counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing said, “It is incumbent upon us to address other aspects related to the border, including de-escalation".
On June 27, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, at a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun, also in Beijing, suggested a ‘permanent solution’ of border demarcation and a roadmap for permanent de-escalation of troops from along the LAC.
Why de-escalation needed?
The LAC, a de-facto boundary, is neither delineated on maps nor demarcated on the ground, leading to differing perceptions and frequent face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops. The June-2020 Galwan valley clash highlighted severe consequences, making de-escalation a top priority for both nations to prevent further conflict and foster an environment conducive to resolving the broader boundary dispute.
De-escalation is the process of reducing military tensions and moving troops back from forward positions. It’s a critical and complex exercise aimed at restoring peace and tranquility in disputed areas. This would mean significant reduction in military presence and a commitment to reduce threat of a large-scale confrontation.
De-induction, the last stage, involves withdrawal of larger reserve formations, military equipment, and heavy weaponry that were amassed during the stand-off and restore the pre-stand-off military posture.
The challenges
India is hindered by topography. The Ladakh plateau is accessible only through high Himalayan passes that remain closed for long periods each year due to snow. China, faces no such challenge on its side. In case a rapid deployment is needed, military equipment would take days to be hauled up the Himalayas. In 2020 post the Galwan clash, Over 68,000 Army soldiers, 90 tanks, nearly 330 infantry combat vehicles, radar systems, artillery guns and other equipment had to be airlifted by the IAF.
Also the 2020 clashes eroded trust between the two countries, making it harder to agree on and implement comprehensive de-escalation measures.
Ensuring that both sides genuinely withdraw troops and equipment as per the agreement requires robust verification mechanisms. In 2020 China violated all agreements and there is no guarantee it would not happen again.
On ground China has added roads and bridges, and has expanded airstrips for fighter jets and military bases. New dual-use villages have been set up by China close to the LAC on its side. India has matched with more roads and adding troops. On the Indian side, artificial intelligence-backed surveillance systems keep a 24×7 eye along the LAC. Drones, satellites, radars and ground sensors provide constant feed all along the 832-km LAC in eastern Ladakh.
Delhi