India needs friends to turn the tide

IS the Kashmir issue ‘resolved’? The transition from the brink of an all-out war to this moment of peace and quiet has been sudden. Two nuclear powers moved from bombing each other, deploying drones, fighter jets and navies, and mobilising army formations to an abrupt ceasefire and mutual claims of victory.

To the uninformed, the skirmish would be bewildering, given the initial scope and scale followed by the sudden cessation — were both sides just testing new weapons and casing each other out? To any old hand, it’s another scene from an old play with a louder chorus. Since Independence, we have fought four wars and have had numerous skirmishes with Pakistan. The Partition was on communal lines, and that bloody conflagration has been the bedrock of hatred on which much of the subsequent conflicts have been based.

Jammu & Kashmir is the only Muslim-majority state-turned-UT in India, and Pakistan desires Kashmir. The fact that along with Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), it is located strategically at the confluence of four nations (Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and India) makes it even more desirable.

The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), often referred to as the new Silk Road, has the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as its fulcrum, connecting Xinjiang to Gwadar through PoK. This corridor opens Central Asian countries and onwards to Europe through direct land routes for Chinese trade. It furthermore connects China to the Middle East with a much shorter sea route through Gwadar. Chinese contracts and investments in the BRI totalled $124 billion with over 176 deals in the first six months of this year, bringing the total investment in this initiative to $1.3 trillion. The highest investments have been in Africa and Central Asia (Financial Times, July 17).

No wonder the Chinese have repeatedly declared their unequivocal support to the Pakistani state. We witnessed this friendship during the recent confrontation. Chinese-made fighter planes, missiles, communication and surveillance satellites and security systems were reportedly used.

To those sections of the media and intelligentsia referring to Pakistan as a bankrupt state and a pushover — welcome to the real world of geopolitics. Pakistan is like those business firms which are in Chapter 11 (Bankruptcy Code) but know how to market themselves to potential suitors while juggling their debtors and gaming the system — they do it well.

The scale of armed conflict has escalated from artillery duels to far more complex theatres of war. Now, there is no longer the odd headline about an exchange of fire in Poonch and Rajouri and the ebb and flow of its intensity. The new era of warfare features drones, satellites, guided missiles and what not. The ramifications will not be limited to remote border regions but will be felt across the whole nation — we must be ready for this.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) put its annual report on its website on July 11. The report said India would not compromise on issues relating to national security and would take firm and decisive steps to deal with all attempts to undermine its security and territorial integrity. However, Pakistan’s attitude has not changed even after the recent deterrent action.

The tone and tenor of its Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has become more belligerent, and he repeatedly describes Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular vein. He has been encouraged by US President Donald Trump, who hosted him for lunch at the White House. The Pakistan Air Force Chief was invited to the Pentagon, where he conferred with the top brass of the US Air Force. The American President has also tried to hyphenate India and Pakistan while claiming credit for the ceasefire (which was purely a bilateral affair between the DGMOs of India and Pakistan).

On the economic front, the World Bank and the IMF, nudged by the US, have approved loans for Pakistan. The Financial Action Task Force has also let Pakistan off the hook by not including it on the defaulters’ list. In the face of these developments, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made our stand clear. There is no ambiguity about it that India’s policy stance has been revised and every act of terror would be considered an act of war and will be dealt with as such.

Where do we go from here in the light of the above discussion and the attitude of Pakistan and its friends? Further provocation is more than likely in Kashmir or elsewhere in India. Pakistan’s post-Partition hangover and the multiple losses it has suffered in the four wars, along with its vested interests, commits it to carry on trying to acquire Kashmir.

Earlier, it was through aiding and abetting terrorism, which was a methodology well learned and developed by the ISI while assisting the US in building the Afghan Taliban. The ISI used it to try and tie up Indian resources in a shadow war, hit morale, keep the issue alive and deliver defeat through a thousand cuts.

So, what happens when the next Pahalgam or its equivalent occurs? Will it be a full-scale war, as declared? Will it be a similar limited skirmish? Will we get played by mischievous elements hoping to profit from conflict? It is a given that in view of the changed policy, we will have to always maintain a high level of readiness in all important theatres. We will have to ensure that our Army meets the optimum requirement standards in terms of manpower, firepower, surveillance systems, technology, etc as we climb this ladder of escalation.

The Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, has been complaining from the day he took over that he does not have even the sanctioned strength of squadrons. He has also argued that indigenous production is lackadaisical, and we have to buy ‘off the counter’ as time is of the essence. The Navy appears to be better off, but constant upgrades are necessary.

Even the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Anil Chauhan, has stated that India cannot win modern wars with outdated weapons. He has underscored the need to adopt future-ready technology, primarily through indigenous development. Policies must be built on equipment platforms available and those to be procured.

As India grows and tries to find its place at the global high table, so do the powers which feel threatened by us — it is the way of things. We must be very watchful on the diplomatic front. We cannot always act unilaterally, and we need friends and allies. During the recent conflict, we did not receive support from our neighbours or any of the major world powers. Pakistan had solid backing of China and Turkiye.

We will have to take a deep dive into our foreign policy and not listen to MEA’s platitudes; this requires work at the highest political and bureaucratic levels. The matter brooks no delay, and we must decide on the interim and long-term measures.

We must understand the enemy, or rather, enemies, their friends and their capabilities. We must accept that in this matter, we are virtually alone at the moment, and it would be difficult to face this humongous task without friends and adequate resources for our armed forces.

Gurbachan Jagat is former Governor, Manipur and ex-DGP, J&K.

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