India’s shifting religious composition: Hindu population declines, Muslim and Christian shares rise in West Bengal and North-Eastern states
India has been a country with many kinds of religions. Most here practice Hinduism, but there are large communities who observe Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Buddhism, Jainism and the tribal religions. The population by religion ratio has changed over time. Even though these changes might not be very prominent at the national level, they become extremely clear if we look closely at specific states and districts, especially in West Bengal, Assam, and the other North-eastern states.
The latest in-depth statistics we have available are those from the 2011 Census. It is more than a decade old now, but it continues to give us a solid idea of how the population mix changed between 2001 and 2011.
What changed between 2001 and 2011?
At the national level, the Hindu population came down slightly, from 80.46% in 2011 to 79.8% in 2001. But the Muslim population rose from 13.43% to 14.23%. Even Christians saw a marginal rise in their share. Although these numbers don’t look very large, if you take them district-wise, the story will be different.
The share of the Hindu population declined in 468 out of 640 districts of India. That is over 70% of the total districts. In 227 districts, the dip was even larger than the national average fall of 0.7%. The Muslim population increased in 513 districts, and the Christian population increased in 439 districts.
What is going on in West Bengal?
West Bengal has seen the Muslim population growing steadily and directly. In districts like Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, and North and South 24 Parganas, the Muslim population grew at a higher rate than the Hindu population. For this reason, the Hindu share in these districts declined. Even the Hindu population declined by over 1% in some districts, much higher than the national average.
This growth isn’t merely evident in numbers. People who live in these regions have witnessed changes around them in the type of shops that open up, the sounds in the market, school holidays, and even in local politics. It’s the kind of change that builds up gradually, but once it reaches an extreme level, people take notice.
Assam’s border concerns
In Assam too, the share of Muslims increased in most districts, especially the ones which are adjacent to Bangladesh. Dhubri, Barpeta, Goalpara, and Morigaon districts all witnessed a massive increase in Muslim populations. Cross-border movement is thought by most people in Assam to be responsible for the phenomenon.
Though the Census does not ask about immigration or religious conversion directly, residents in Assam have been voicing opposition to illegal migration for years. Political parties, residents, and citizens regularly raise the issue. Demographic change has also been a major origin of the NRC (National Register of Citizens) and other verification campaigns across the state.
Christian population of the Northeast increases rapidly
There is a religious transformation taking place in Northeast India. States of Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh are experiencing a high rise in the Christian population. In fact, in 238 Indian districts, the Christian population increased by more than 50% between 2001 and 2011.
It has been most pronounced in tribal areas, where Christian missionaries have worked for decades. While some call it religious conversion, others call it a spin-off of education, healthcare centres, and welfare schemes by church organisations in far-off lands.
In such states, Christianity’s growth is now not seen as external; it has become indigenous. The majority of the tribal groups now declare themselves to be Christian and practice both their old ways and the new faith.
Economist and member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, Shamika Ravi, posted on social media a set of maps. They demonstrated how religious dynamics changed in India between 2001 and 2011. One map showed where the Hindu share declined the most, and another showed where the Muslim and Christian populations increased most.
The maps confirmed what residents in these areas had been sensing for years, intuitively, that their immediate population mix was changing.
Why are the changes happening?
There are several reasons why the religious makeup of these wards is changing.
The birth rate is the primary reason because muslims have recorded higher birth rates than Hindus, though this gap has started to narrow in the recent past.
Where Muslims or Christians existed already in significant numbers, their numbers grew more quickly. A slight difference in birth rates makes a big difference in the long term.
Migration and conversion, to which one can lay one of the causes in states like Assam and portions of the Northeast, religious conversion and cross-border migration also affect the indigenous population.
Interestingly, the steepest decline of Hindu share was in constituencies where Hindus were neither the overwhelming majority nor an infinitesimal minority, where the constituency was already a mix. Where Hindus were more than 90% or less than 20%, however, the switch wasn’t as steep. For the Muslims, growth was biggest where they were already in large numbers. And Christian growth was biggest where groups of tribes lived, especially in remote hilly tracts.
These are not sudden changes
It’s also important to mention that these changes didn’t take place overnight. They’ve been happening gradually for years. For example, between 1961 and 2011, the Muslim share of India’s population grew in each decade. Between 1961 and 1971, it rose by 0.5%, and between 1991 and 2001 by 0.8%, and again between 2001 and 2011 by 0.8%.
So the 2001-2011 transitions are not unexpected. They are part of a longer trend that has been accumulating over the last 50 years.
These data matter for a variety of reasons
These population changes matter for a variety of reasons. In a nation like India, where politics, identity, and communal life hinge so much on religion, even modest transitions can produce huge controversies.
In the West Bengal and Assam states, shifting demographics determine local politics, school education, festival management, and land disputes. In tribal areas, the process of converting to Christianity shapes the manner in which individuals identify themselves culturally.
Others are concerned that, if left unabated, the composition of the local population would completely change in a period of about two decades. Others view this as just part of natural expansion in an open nation.
No new information yet
The 2021 Census was expected to provide us with an estimate of such transitions, but it’s been delayed first due to COVID-19, and then due to administrative reasons. So, we are still stuck using 2011 data to get a sense of things.
Until the new data arrives, arguments regarding demographic transitions will have to go on based on old numbers, satellite studies, and surveys such as the one addressed here.
Diversity has been one of the major features of India from day one. But to maintain harmony in such a large and diverse society, monitoring the ways in which this diversity is changing is a must.
Between 2001 and 2011, we saw clear trends, the Hindu proportion of population declined in all districts except a few, while Muslim and Christian proportions increased, especially in West Bengal, Assam, and the Northeast. Transformations always have multiple causes, and these transformations are not new. But they are more visible today, especially in sensitive regions of population composition.
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