Japan PM Ishiba’s Coalition Projected To Lose Upper House Amid ‘Japanese-First’ Party Rise, Trump Tariff Threat

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s political standing took a major hit on Sunday as his coalition lost its hold on the upper house of parliament, according to projections by Japanese media outlets Nippon TV and TBS. The setback comes just months after Ishiba assumed office and called a snap general election that already pushed his government into minority status in the lower house.

Coalition Falls Short in Upper House Polls

Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior ally Komeito were expected to secure around 41 out of the 125 contested seats, falling short of the 50 needed to maintain their majority in the 248-seat upper house, based on exit poll data reported by Nippon TV and TBS.

This follows a crushing defeat in the lower house polls last October, which forced Ishiba’s government into a minority shortly after he took over as Prime Minister. The new upper house results further compound his political troubles, leaving the coalition dependent on opposition support to pass legislation.

Speaking to news agency AFP prior to the media projections, Toru Yoshida, professor of politics at Doshisha University, remarked that a loss of majority in both houses may compel Ishiba to resign. “Japan could step into an unknown dimension of the ruling government being a minority in both the lower house and the upper house, which Japan has never experienced since World War II,” Yoshida warned.

Voter Discontent In Japan Over Economic Woes

At polling stations in Tokyo, several voters voiced concern over economic pressures. “Commodity prices are going up, but I am more worried that salaries aren’t increasing,” said 54-year-old Atsushi Matsuura to AFP. Another voter, 65-year-old Hisayo Kojima, expressed her discontent over pension cuts: “We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me.”

Ishiba, a centre-right leader known for his deep interest in defence and trains, came to power in September after several failed attempts. However, his immediate call for snap elections backfired, weakening his coalition’s standing in parliament.

US Tariffs, Scandal Add to Japan Government’s Troubles

Ishiba’s administration is also grappling with multiple challenges, including the looming threat of 25 percent US tariffs on Japanese goods, particularly automobiles, if no trade deal is reached by 1 August. Japan’s auto industry, which employs nearly eight percent of the workforce, has already been impacted by existing tariffs.

Despite early diplomatic outreach—meeting US President Donald Trump in February and dispatching trade representatives to Washington seven times—no agreement has materialised. Trump recently dampened hopes of a deal, stating that Japan would not “open up their country.”

This deadlock has drawn criticism of Ishiba’s negotiation tactics. Masahisa Endo, a political science professor at Waseda University, told AFP: “How well his government is able to handle negotiations over US tariffs is extremely important, as it’s important for the LDP to increase trust among the public.”

Adding to Ishiba’s woes is residual public anger over a funding scandal involving the LDP, which has further eroded confidence in the government.

Rise of Right-Wing Sanseito Party With 'Japanese-first' Agenda

Meanwhile, the right-wing populist party Sanseito has gained traction, with projections indicating they could secure between 10 and 22 seats—up from their current two. The party, known for its “Japanese-first” agenda, has campaigned on tougher immigration laws, opposition to globalism, decarbonisation efforts, and so-called “radical” gender policies.

Sanseito was recently compelled to deny associations with Moscow after a candidate gave an interview to Russian state media, amid concerns about foreign influence. At a recent rally, one supporter told AFP: “They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn’t put into words for many years.”

The LDP’s previous failure to maintain an upper house majority dates back to 2010, and a loss in the lower house two years earlier had paved the way for a rare opposition-led government. However, the current fragmented state of the opposition makes a similar shift in power less likely.

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