Water Bomb
On 19 July, China began constructing a $167.8 billion dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, close to the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh. Billed as the largest infrastructure project in the world, this massive hydroelectric project is expected to not only jeopardize the region’s fragile ecosystem but also enhance China’s geopolitical leverage over India, the downstream nation. The scale of this project surpasses any other single infrastructure project in the world, including China’s own Three Gorges Dam, currently regarded as the largest in the world and supposedly visible from space.
The Brahmaputra, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibetan, originates at the Angsi Glacier near Gang Rinpoche (known as Mount Kailash to Indians), situated on the northern slopes of the Himalayas in the Burang County, Tibet. It traverses the Tibetan Plateau, creating the deepest canyon on the planet. The dam is being constructed in a significant gorge in the Himalayan region, where the Brahmaputra makes a U-turn before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and subsequently into the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh. The project site is also positioned along a tectonic plate boundary. Located over the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, the Tibetan Plateau, also called the roof of the world, frequently experiences earthquakes.
In 2006, India and China established the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) to engage in discussions concerning various issues related to transboundary rivers. Under this framework, China had been providing India with essential hydrological information regarding the waters of the Brahmaputra in the northeast and Sutlej in the northwest during the flood seasons. However, since 2022, Beijing has ceased the sharing of crucial hydrological data pertaining to transboundary rivers, including the Brahmaputra. This cessation follows the expiration and subsequent non-renewal of previous Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs). This data blackout coincides with an increase in the construction of large-scale dams by China in Tibet, thereby depriving India of critical upstream flow data. For instance, China has already operationalised the Zam Hydropower Station, a $1.5 billion project and the largest in Tibet, since its inauguration in 2015, about which India had previously raised concerns.
The Brahmaputra is a crucial river, underpinning nearly one-third of India’s freshwater reserves and accounting for over 40 per cent of the nation’s hydropower potential. The absence of access to upstream metrics renders India vulnerable to increased ecological, economic, and strategic risks, particularly in the northeastern states. Also, the prospect of China using the waters of the Brahmaputra as a strategic instrument against India cannot be ruled out. In the Brahmaputra case, China could release water from the dam without prior notification, resulting in flooding the lower regions of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. This situation has been aptly highlighted by Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, who has cautioned that the dam represents an existential threat to the local populace and could be employed as a “water bomb” by China against India.
Adding to the strategic calculus, Pakistan, on the other side, views this dam project as a vital gain, one that not only strengthens its alliance with China but also acts as a counterweight to Indian influence in the region. This is true especially in the wake of India putting the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan in abeyance in retaliation to the Pahalgam terror attack. It may be noted that the IWT, signed between the two countries in 1960, has stood the test of time. Three wars had been fought in between, Kargil being the last. Yet the river water kept flowing all through. Nearly 93 per cent of water from the Indus is used for irrigating nearly 80 per cent of the agricultural fields of Pakistan amounting to nearly 60 million hectares, feeding some 230 million people in that country. Meanwhile, Indian leaders have since been warning that “blood and water cannot flow together” and have vowed to not supply “even a drop of water to Pakistan.” In this backdrop, it is not difficult to understand what could happen to India if China weaponizes the Brahmaputra in the same way in support of its “all-weather friend” Pakistan.
In fact, unlike the IWT between India and Pakistan, Beijing is not bound by any water-sharing treaty with New Delhi. As matters stand, China has already succeeded in encircling India with enemies and is itself embroiled in a border dispute with India. India’s foreign relations with all its immediate neighbours seem to have totally crumbled. Under such circumstances, a water war with China is the last thing India would need to face or be capable of handling.
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