Will DK Shivakumar survive Siddaramaiah's book of tricks to become the next CM of Karnataka?

Will Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar emerge as the successor to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah in December this year, as per the much speculated “secret” power-sharing pact or join the league of veteran Congress leaders and CM wannabes?

AICC chief Mallikarjun Kharge’s recent statement expressing his despair over losing out in the chief minister’s race in 1999, has once again revived the debate on the “Dalit CM” in Karnataka. But the demand for a Dalit CM is seen as only a diversionary tactic, especially when it is raised by the close aides of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.

“I was the CLP leader and worked day and night for the party. In 1999, our party came to power (by winning 132 seats out of 224). But S.M. Krishna who was appointed the party chief only four months back, became the chief minister. I felt all my efforts had gone in vain,” said Kharge, adding that he had worked hard to become the AICC president from a block president.

When the chorus for a ‘Dalit CM’ grows louder every time, there is a speculation over a change of guard in the state. Like Kharge (83), Home minister G Parameshwara (73), who is the longest serving state party president, lost out in the CM’s race in 2013, after he lost his seat in Koratagere, though the party won a thumping majority (122 seats). Siddaramaiah, who had joined the Congress party after quitting the JDS, was picked as the CM, as he had the mass appeal and was perceived as the vote-catcher due to his ‘Ahinda’ (minorities, dalit and backward classes voting bloc) politics. Former Union minister and seven-time MP K.H. Muniyappa (77), who is currently the state food and civil supplies minister has been a contender for the post.

“Congress is an anti-Dalit party. We have seen how Kharge, Muniyappa and Parameshwara have been kept away from the CM’s chair. Whatever the reason, it is like the sons of Kunti (of Mahabharata) will always be denied the kingdom,” mocked BJP’s leader of Opposition in Assembly R Ashok.

The ongoing power tussle between Siddaramaiah (76) and his deputy D.K. Shivakumar (63), also KPCC president, has led to speculations over a change of guard in December this year. While Siddaramaiah has always dismissed the “secret power pact” that demands Siddaramaiah to step down after two and half years to make way for Shivakumar as his successor, Shivakumar has publicly claimed the existence of such an arrangement, which was worked out by the high command in May 2023, after the party wrested power in the state. The party high command has since remained neutral neither clarifying nor endorsing either of the two claims.

Siddaramaiah’s recent press meet in Delhi, where claimed he would complete a “full term” of five years as the CM, stunned not only his adversaries, but also the party high command. Siddaramaiah was certainly sending a strong message to the Shivakumar’s camp and also the high command that he continues to enjoy support of a majority of the legislators.

Kuruba strongman Siddaramaiah’s recent induction into the AICC’s OBC advisory council as a member, is seen as an effort by the High Command to ensure the power transfer is “smooth” and to avert a backlash from the Ahinda voters.

Even as Siddaramaiah’s camp wants to dislodge Shivakumar from the KPCC chief’s post to ensure a “level playing field” for all if and when the party decides to pick a new chief minister, Shivakumar hopes that the “power pact” agreed upon by the high command remains sacrosanct and that his loyalty to the party and the Gandhi family pays off.

Siddaramaiah’s aides PWD minister Satish Jarkiholi and Cooperation minister KN Rajanna (both belonging to ST community) have sought replacement of KPCC chief citing the “one man, one post” rule and also stating that the Shivakumar, who is handling two important portfolios – Bengaluru development and water resources, had too much on his plate and that the party needed a full-time chief.

The deputy CM has succeeded in keeping the CM under check by stalling caste-based conventions, birthday bashes and thanksgiving public rallies meant to bolster the image of Siddaramaiah as an undisputed leader. Recently, during the ‘Sadhana Samavesha” in Mysuru, Kharge publicly told CM’s close confidante Social welfare minister Dr HC Mahadevappa to “stop” filling CM’s ears (snitching), weary of the factional feuds in the party.

A major blow to Siddaramaiah was the party leadership stalling the implementation of the Caste Survey (Caste census) citing “redundancy”, as it was carried out in 2015. A disappointed Siddaramaiah has announced a fresh survey (between September 22 to October 7) in haste as it is believed to give him a taller stature within the party, which heavily relies on the Ahinda votebank.

Also, AICC general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala’s one-to-one meeting with the MLAs and performance appraisal of the ministers, in the absence of both the CM and the KPCC chief, are seen as a snub on Siddaramaiah’s administration. After the MLAs complained against paucity of development funds and “inaccessible” ministers to Surjewala, Siddaramaiah not only released Rs 50 crore to each MLA but is also holding meetings with MLAs from different regions starting July 29.

The constant CM versus DCM tussle has had an adverse impact on governance and also the party. The cabinet reshuffle and the appointments to boards and corporations have been stalled multiple times by the party leadership fearing it would deepen the fissures and lead to more disgruntlement within the leaders and cadres.

The sudden bouts of camaraderie between the two leaders, when Siddaramaiah reiterates there are “no differences” between him and his deputy, or when Shivakumar pledges his support to Siddaramaiah as a “loyal soldier” of the party, are only for optics, say insiders as the resentment is brewing in both camps. The party high command which is keen to showcase Karnataka as a successful governance model in the country, is treading with caution as it cannot risk antagonising either the Ahinda voters or the sizeable Vokkaliga voters, who shifted their allegiance from JDS to Congress in 2023, in the hope of seeing one of their fellow Vokkaligas (Shivakumar) become the CM. Also, Karnataka's tendency to not elect the same party twice, seems to have made Shivakumar’s resolve to occupy the coveted post this same term, which ends in May 2028.

Come December, Karnataka will most likely witness a political upheaval, a change of guard or a stiff resistance to change. Either way, it will redefine the political narrative of the state as well as the two big leaders who are at the crossroads of their long political career.

India