The only way to harness demographics

INDIA has crossed a historic threshold: its birth and death rates have halved in 40 years, according to government data for 2023. The crude birth rate has fallen from 36.9 per 1,000 in 1971 to 17.2 in 2023, while the crude death rate has dropped from 14.9 to 6.4. Infant mortality has declined from a staggering 129 per 1,000 live births in the early 1970s to 22 today, while the maternal mortality ratio has fallen to 97 per 1,00,000. These are victories of better healthcare, family planning and social well-being.

But this achievement also carries a stark warning. India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 — below the replacement level of 2.1 in many states. Rural fertility now stands at 2.1, while urban fertility has plunged to 1.6. The much-celebrated demographic dividend — India’s vast working-age population, about 65 per cent of the total — will not last forever. Without urgent reforms, India risks replicating the fate of ageing societies like Japan, where shrinking workforces stalled growth and strained welfare systems. The challenge is no longer numbers — it is opportunity. Over 42 per cent of the youth are neither in formal jobs nor pursuing higher education. The female labour force participation rate is just 37 per cent, far below global averages. Social security remains limited, raising the risk of elderly poverty as life expectancy rises beyond 70 years. Disturbingly, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh lag behind, with higher fertility and mortality pulling down national averages.

A falling birth rate should be a blessing, not a curse. But for that, India must create jobs, transform education into employability, ensure women’s participation and build social safety nets. The demographic dividend is fleeting. Squander it — and it will swiftly turn into a burden.

Editorials