WTC Final Scenario: Exact Results India Need In Next 10 Games To Qualify

The Indian cricket team finds itself in a precarious situation after the defeat in the Kolkata Test. In the 2025-2027 cycle, the Shubman Gill-led side has already lost three matches, while one ended in a draw. In the cycle so far, the team has mustered up just 4 wins, a number that has made their World Test Championship final qualification race an uphill battle. Yet, all hope is not lost yet. The Indian team, to reach the title-decider from hereon, needs to put on a near-perfect show.

At present, Gill's Team India sits mid-table in the standings with a points percentage (PCT) of just over 54. As history has taught us, the qualification threshold usually hovers between 64 to 68 percent. This means India must win the majority of their remaining matches to climb into the top two. The margin for error is slim, and every defeat from here on will make qualification increasingly difficult.

India's Remaining Fixtures In the WTC 2025-27 Cycle:

Home series against South Africa - 1 Test (Guwahati)

Away series against Sri Lanka - 2 Tests

Away series against New Zealand - 2 Tests

Home series against Australia - 5 Tests

If India go on to win these 10 Tests, their total points tally would go up to 120 points. The team has already played 8 of the total 18 matches it was to in the ongoing cycle.

India's potential PCT, depending upon the number of wins the team achieves in the remaining games:

5 Wins: India's final points would be 112, resulting in a Final PCT of 51.85%.

6 Wins: India's final points would be 124, resulting in a Final PCT of 57.41%.

7 Wins: India's final points would be 136, resulting in a Final PCT of 62.96%.

8 Wins: India's final points would be 148, resulting in a Final PCT of 68.52%.

9 Wins: India's final points would be 160, resulting in a Final PCT of 74.07%.

10 Wins: India's final points would be 172, resulting in a Final PCT of 79.63%.

For India to confidently secure a spot in the World Test Championship final, they will likely need to target at least 8 wins in their remaining 10 matches to achieve a PCT above the historical qualification threshold (around 65%).

WTC Finals History:

New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa are the winners of the three ICC WTC cycles that have been completed so far. Here's what the PCT of the six teams in the previous three finals were:

1. 2019-2021 Cycle (Winner: New Zealand)

India (Rank 1): 72.2%

New Zealand (Rank 2): 70.0%

2. 2021-2023 Cycle (Winner: Australia)

Australia (Rank 1): 66.7%

India (Rank 2): 58.8%

3. 2023-2025 Cycle (Winner: South Africa)

South Africa (Rank 1): 69.44%

Australia (Rank 2): 67.54%

Hence, India have to aim for a PCT of around 68% if they are to play another WTC final.

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