Bitcoin Eyes Strong Comeback To Reclaim the $100,000 Mark: Here’s How
April has been quite busy for the crypto markets. Bitcoin bounced back over 28% from its lows, currently trading at $94,800, outperforming the US equities and Gold last month. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.1% this month, Gold gained 6%, while Bitcoin surged 15.7% in April, supported by sustained Bitcoin ETF inflows, corporate buying and favourable macroeconomic conditions. With the broader market sentiment getting better by the day and the global trade tensions easing, Bitcoin’s momentum is set to continue. With Bitcoin back on the bullish trajectory, let's take a look at all the factors that contributed to the recovery and help BTC touch the $100,000 mark.
The Return Of Institutional Demand
Bitcoin spot ETFs had seen huge outflows in the early days of April, with most institutions moving money into safer assets for the time being, given the economic and global uncertainty. However, the 90-day pause of import tariffs by Trump triggered a major trend reversal in the markets. Since then, institutions have slowly re-entered the markets, heavily contributing to Bitcoin’s price movement. Currently, the Bitcoin spot ETFs stand at net positive inflows of $3.20 billion, showing a strong shift in institutional demand. Similarly, corporate buying has also increased significantly, with Strategy (MicroStrategy) resuming its Bitcoin acquisition. In April, Strategy acquired 25,370 Bitcoins worth over $2.2 billion, adding to the increased demand.
Additionally, Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin Whales, holding at least 1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC, have increased 124,000 to 137,600 over the last 30 days, accumulating 53,600 BTC, now controlling 67.77% of Bitcoin in circulation. By taking a significant amount of BTC out of circulation, whales have reduced selling pressure, playing a major role in pushing prices higher.
Increased Exchange Outflows & Improved Macro Trend
Long-term investors, too, have turned active towards the second half of the month. On-chain data shows that investors have been withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges. Over the past week alone, investors have withdrawn over 50,500 BTC from exchanges worth $4.7 billion. Typically, high exchange outflows suggest that Bitcoin investors are choosing to accumulate rather than sell. This points to withdrawals from exchanges into private wallets, with investors holding their BTC to wait for higher prices before they start selling.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic data collected so far creates a favourable environment for Bitcoin’s rally. The US consumer confidence has fallen to 86.0 (the lowest level since May 2020) while job openings for March have declined to 7.19 million, both signalling a cooling economy. This increases the likelihood of economic stimulus, which often boosts interest in risk-on assets like crypto.
Changing Retail Investor Sentiment
A significant change that happened over the past month is the improvement in retail investor sentiment. The Fear-Greed index that depicts the mood of the market has risen from a low of 15 (Extreme Fear) during the correction period to 52 (Neutral), indicating that there is less chance of a ‘panic sell’ in the current market conditions that encourage fresh liquidity.
Another bullish factor is that the recent rally has placed Bitcoin above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, i.e., the average price paid by recent investors in the last 155 days. This level, around the low $90,000s, is important as it signals that newer investors are back in profit. When prices are below this, sentiment tends to be negative, as most are at a loss. Now, with short-term holders “in the green,” confidence is rising, and the urge to sell weakens. This marks a shift in sentiment, helping build market momentum.
More Than Just Hype
Bitcoin’s breakout above $90,000 and its move toward the psychological $100,000 mark is backed by fundamental shifts in market dynamics rather than just hype. The combination of macro-driven optimism and bullish on-chain signals indicates a stronger rally going forward. With just a 5% gap to a major psychological milestone, continued momentum could draw significant new capital into the market. That said, investors should stay alert to geopolitical and economic developments, as they could lead to sudden price swings in an otherwise optimistic setup.
(The author is the co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, a global crypto investment platform)
Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd. Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. Cryptocurrency is not a legal tender and is subject to market risks. Readers are advised to seek expert advice and read offer document(s) along with related important literature on the subject carefully before making any kind of investment whatsoever. Cryptocurrency market predictions are speculative and any investment made shall be at the sole cost and risk of the readers.
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