OPINION: Pakistan wants military response from India. Will New Delhi choose to strike?

March 22, 2025, witnessed the most horrific and barbaric Islamist terrorist strike against non-Muslim tourists in Pahalgam. It has caused further turbulence in a world that is already in turmoil. It was a cold-blooded, selective, daylight butchering of innocent civilians. The barbarians chose victims for the crime of “not belonging to a faith”.

While the Pakistani signature is evident, many questions remain unanswered.

Merely six days before the Pahalgam attack, why did the Pakistan Army Chief Azim Munir suddenly speak so excitedly about the two-nation theory and urge Pakistanis to be anti-Hindu and anti-India? Why did the terrorists make it openly known that they were specifically killing non-Muslims? Why was the attack carried out on tourists? Why in Pahalgam and why on March 22, 2025? Was this just an attempt to whip up communal tensions in India?

The terror attack has rightly caused public anger and call for revenge across India.

TV channels, strategists and the public at large anticipate a visible and telling military blow to Pakistan in response to the dastardly killings. Military options are being discussed threadbare by all and sundry. Across the border, in Pakistan, the attempt is clearly to disassociate itself from terror and to match or outdo Indian panellists in the verbal duel on TV studios. There is also a desperate attempt by the Pakistan establishment to scare away the Indian military response through loud display of patriotism and reiterating assumed capabilities of the Pakistan forces, including its nuclear powers.

Pakistan intelligence agencies and their political leaders have, almost on a daily basis, been forecasting the opening salvo of Indian military operations in the “next 24 to 48 hours”.

It has been more than ten days since the dastardly terror attack took place. Amidst all the global and domestic cacophony around the crisis, Pakistan is clearly on the edge and is expecting the Indian military response to materialise any moment. This expectation is also evident on the part of the media, some analysts and the people on both sides.

However, the Indian government is not obliging.

The Indian response so far has been confined to civilised actions bordering the “sanctions war” of the developed world. These actions hold the potential to cause immense long-term damage to Pakistan. All indications are that more such measures will follow. However, a military retaliation from India is what Pakistan would prefer, is hoping for and is preparing to counter. This may sound strange.

Why would Pakistan prefer a military response from India as opposed to other measures?

Pakistan reckons that, in today's context in the subcontinent, military operations may not manifest as classical land operations of yesteryears and would be confined to strikes and counter-strikes. In such a scenario, Pakistan Army believes that it will be able to carry out at least some counter-strikes. More importantly, it is also the only domain where Pakistan can put up a semblance of a fight. An armed conflict will bring back the Kashmir issue to the global stage and also provide a much-needed diversion for Pakistan’s domestic political turmoil. Pakistan Army reckons that a military confrontation would help it resurrect its own relevance and control over the government. Further, a military strike by India would give Pakistan the opportunity for an image makeover, from being the global villain to a victim in need of international aid. In conclusion, in case of an armed conflict, the “sub-rules” of the game and the escape routes are known to Pakistan.

However, India is not obliging, at least not as yet, with a military retaliation. India’s non-military strikes have left Pakistan groping for a response. The impact of the uncertainty of war can be assessed from the report that the Pakistan air defence radar networks experienced hallucinations of Indian fighter jets coming at them. As per the report, they actually scrambled Pakistan fighters to counter the imagined Indian fighter jets.

Pakistan seems confused and unable to make up its mind even to open its borders to let Pakistani citizens come back to the country! International airlines are avoiding Pakistan airspace. India is urging FATF (Financial Action Task Force) to block aid from organisations like the IMF to Pakistan, considering Islamabad's role in the global terror supply chain.

Fearing Indian strikes, Pakistan has been forced to empty and shift terror camps even without a round being fired. The unilateral suspension Indus Waters Treaty has worsened the already burning “six new canals” conflict in Pakistan. It has given a huge jolt to the country’s agriculture sector. Pakistan knows the crippling consequences of even minor legally tenable alterations to the Indus river systems by India. Agriculture contributes almost 25 per cent to Pakistan’s GDP, and employs close to 40 per cent of its labour force. Ninety per cent of Pakistan agriculture is dependent totally upon irrigation sourced from the Indus river system.

How severe the impact of the treaty suspension will be is evident from the Pakistan Prime Minister declaring it an act of war. Azim Munir has just realised that it is the Indus water and not Kashmir that is Pakistan’s real Jugular vein.

Just imagine, the dry and intense summer of 2025 in the subcontinent is only starting!

India has landed a few painful non-war punches on Pakistan while also pushing it into the frenzy of “imminent war”. On the other hand, there is no warmongering by the Indian government. It is seemingly going about its normal business without being distracted from its sharp focus on important economic and governance issues.

Inauguration of Andhra Pradesh’s new capital project, incremental opening of the Vizhinjam Port which is on track to becoming a major regional shipping facility, identifying measures to exploit India’s huge orange economy potential, the unstoppable growth of India’s money-spinner IPL towards becoming the richest global sports leagues, national caste census, and interrogation of the global terrorist Tahawwur Hussain Rana are topics occupying considerable space in the Indian news headlines.

While in India, it seems like another week in office, across the border, in Pakistan it is wartime. There is an intense activity, national trauma and absolute war frenzy. Azim Munir, meanwhile, has been missing in action.

For the time being at least, India seems to have taken Pakistan and its army onto an unfamiliar playground.

On India’s part, there has been no panic and no knee-jerk reaction, despite some confusing signals of encouragement for military retaliation from the opposition parties. India is keeping Pakistan on the edge, while also inflicting effective damages to it through tools other than its military.

Beyond all this, the question that beckons Pakistan continues to loom large—will India execute a military strike?

Who knows?

The author is the former Deputy Chief of Army Staff. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.

Defence