BJP’s U-turn On Caste Census Is An Indication Of India’s Changing Politics

Amidst the Pahalgam crisis, the caste census has made a rather sedate entry into India’s body politic. The whole country has been busy playing the guessing game as to when and how the Modi government is going to teach Pakistan a lesson. In this cacophony of ultra-nationalism, the caste census must be feeling lost and orphaned, because, except for a day or two in between, no TV channel has risked leaving nationalism, taking the debate around Mandal politics forward. But the reality is that this one policy decision by the Modi government has the potential to change the entire politics of the country. It has the potential to blunt the Hindutva narrative, and the politics of social justice can be the flavour of future India. It is in this context that a legitimate question should be asked: who and which party will be the real beneficiary of the caste census politics? Will the BJP electorally gain by this decision of the government, or will the Congress, whose leader Rahul Gandhi has been vociferously demanding that caste censure should be done, reap the benefit? Or original parties of Mandal politics, like the Samajwadi Party, RJD, JD (U) and others, will outmanoeuvre national parties?

It’s a matter of common knowledge that the BJP and its government have been opposed to the caste census. In fact, the government had informed the Supreme Court a few years back that it had taken a policy decision not to go for a caste census. The Prime Minister was so upset with Nitish Kumar’s government making the report public of the caste survey in Bihar that he called the exercise a sin and dangerous for the country. Yogi Adityanath, who has now hailed the decision as revolutionary, had earlier said that the caste census would divide the country. He had gone to the extent of saying that it was treason. When he coined a new slogan, ‘batenge toh katenge‘, it was assumed that it was a counter to the demand for a caste census. This was later modified by Modi as ‘Ek hain to safe hain’. The caste census was thought to be a great stumbling block in the path of the Hindu unity project. Nitin Gadkari was so upset with the debate that he said, ‘If anyone talked about caste, he would kick that person’. One can simply ask if the BJP was so opposed to this act, then why did it take a U-turn on an issue which was seen to be damaging the Hindu unity project of the RSS/BJP?

Obviously, in the last few months, it dawned on the BJP that for ideological reasons the party could not jeopardise its electoral fortune. Keeping in mind Rahul Gandhi’s aggression on the issue and his governments in Karnataka and Telangana coming out with a caste census report and aggressively pushing the issue, the government realised that it would do the BJP no end of damage. There was a sense in the BJP that the party could ill afford to make the mistakes that Rajiv Gandhi did, under whose leadership Congress could not take a clear stand on the Mandal Commission recommendations and finally paid a heavy price, particularly in UP and Bihar. In this context, the Modi government’s announcements can be seen at best as a damage control exercise. It is an exercise to win back OBC and Dalit voters, who have started distancing themselves from the party. In the parliamentary election of 2024, the BJP witnessed an erosion of support in the section of the Hindu community. The CSDS had clearly predicted this trend in its post-poll survey. The BJP could have ignored this trend only at its own peril.

But the BJP might have to suffer the anger of its most loyal voters, who have been voting for the BJP overwhelmingly since the 2014 elections. The upper caste, comprising 14% to 17% of the population, historically the ruling class, has been feeling uprooted since the implementation of the Mandal Commission Report, and are mightily upset with the BJP. They are feeling cheated. It was this class that had openly opposed the 27% reservation given to the OBCs by the Mandal Commission report in 1990. To protest V.P. Singh’s move, then, young boys self-immolated and died in the process. But the dye was cast, and after the Supreme Court order, there was no turning back, and parties like the Congress and the BJP lost major ground in states like UP and Bihar. Congress is still a fringe player in these states, but the BJP was in the wilderness for almost two decades in UP and had to play second fiddle to Nitish Kumar in Bihar.

Now the question is, can the BJP regain the confidence of the OBCs and Dalits after this announcement? I have serious doubts. The BJP’s past on the issue of social justice is not something about which it can feel proud. It has always been seen as a party of the upper caste. No doubt, after the arrival of Modi and Shah, the party did try to accommodate the OBCs and Dalits. Nonetheless, it never openly supported the politics of social justice; it preferred to mock them, ridicule their leaders, and insult parties like the Samajwadi Party and the RJD. It vehemently opposed the caste census. It aggressively pursued Hindutva, which, in other words, is a resurrection of upper caste politics. Upper caste’s open support for Hindutva was a reclamation project; it was an attempt to reclaim its ground, which it had conceded to the backward castes and Dalits since the 1990s. Now, its sudden U-turn might win a few power-hungry OBC/Dalit leaders, but the community as such will continue to view them with suspicion.

If the BJP decides to fundamentally change its politics, shun Hindutva and embrace social justice, only then can it endear itself to these communities. But that is an impossibility. If the BJP does that, there won’t be a BJP. It will be reborn as a new party. There won’t be a BJP without Hindutva. But one thing is certain: politics from now onwards will take a new turn, and the space for upper caste hegemony will shrink.

The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B

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