Operation Sindoor marks a strategic shift

With the Indian defence forces conducting Operation Sindoor, a ‘Modi doctrine’ to deal with an ‘unacceptable’ Pakistani terrorist strike has been conclusively established. The beginnings of the doctrine can be traced to the surgical strikes after the Uri terrorist attack in 2016. The surgical strikes hit at Pakistan’s terrorist launch pads across the Line of Control. Their significance lay in the fact that for the first time, India announced that it had taken kinetic action in response to a Pakistani terrorist attack.

The second occasion was when the Prime Minister authorised the use of kinetic force after the Pulwama terror attack in February 2019. An Indian Air Force aircraft hit a terrorist centre in Balakot.

The next day, Pakistani and Indian fighter aircraft engaged with each other. In that dogfight, an Indian pilot baled out in Pakistan territory. The Pakistani authorities returned him to India almost immediately to avoid an escalation. Significantly, they also denied that the Balakot aerial strike had caused any damage.

Operation Sindoor has been of a different order altogether. All three arms of the defence forces are said to have been used to strike at the headquarters of the main terrorist organisations that have been involved in terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in India. They were struck as part of the nine terror hubs that were attacked in the early hours of May 7.

Thus, Operation Sindoor specifically went after the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) headquarters in Muridke and that of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Bahawalpur. These two terrorist outfits especially evoke strong Indian emotions because of the nature of the attacks they have undertaken.

In his briefing on Operation Sindoor, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said: “Pakistani and Pakistan-trained terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba carried out a savage attack on Indian tourists at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir in India. They murdered 26 people… The attack in Pahalgam was marked by extreme barbarity, with the victims mostly killed with headshots from close range and in front of their families.

Family members were deliberately traumatised through the manner of the killing, accompanied by the exhortation that they should take back the message." He went on to say: “A group calling itself ‘The Resistance Front’ has claimed responsibility for the attack. This group is a front for the UN-proscribed Pakistani terrorist group, Lashkar-e-Toiba."

The Pahalgam terrorist attack caused widespread and deep anger because it was entirely communal in nature and targeted innocent tourists. But the LeT and its leader Hafiz Saeed have a special notoriety in India’s national consciousness because they carried out the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack.

India too has not forgotten that Pakistan did not bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack to justice, though it acknowledged the LeT’s role.

The JeM and its leader Masood Azhar also cause great revulsion in India not only because they carried out the Kandahar hijack but also because of the Parliament terrorist attack of 2001. The JeM, no doubt encouraged by senior elements of the Pakistani army, also undertook the Pathankot airbase attack of 2016, which put paid to Modi’s peace initiative with Pakistan.

Thus, the Indian defence forces striking Bahawalpur and Muridke during Operation Sindoor will specially resonate among Indians. These organisations and their leaders are virtually arms of the Pakistani state, which was compelled to take action against them to get off the grey list of the FATF.

However, Pakistani steps against them were only of a cosmetic nature. Indeed, these two groups, in particular, have developed roots in sections of Pakistani society which will be difficult to pull out without the Pakistan army and state paying a cost. This, they are unwilling to do because the use of terror is now an essential part of Pakistan’s security doctrine.

While India is united in standing with the Modi government for undertaking Operation Sindoor, it is essential, even if national sentiments are surcharged currently, to undertake a cool analysis of how the Pakistani state apparatus will respond to the operation. Along with this, a realistic assessment has also to be made of how the international community will react to India’s kinetic action.

As I write, Pakistan has acknowledged that it has lost 26 lives in the Indian strikes and over 40 have suffered injuries. It has also claimed that it has downed five Indian aircraft and destroyed a brigade headquarters. In addition, the LoC and IB ceasefire of 2021 is over, for the Pakistani army has opened fire using artillery. That has resulted in 20 Indian fatalities. The Indian army is responding in kind.

The Pakistan army has always projected that it is the ultimate guardian of the people. As such, it is in its DNA to give what it calls a ‘fitting’ response to any Indian kinetic action, especially one in which there have been civilian fatalities.

Also, as Muridke and Bahawalpur were attacked in addition to Hizbul Mujahideen establishments, there will be great pressure from terrorist leaders to ‘teach the Indians’ a lesson. There is no doubt that the government and the defence forces have taken precautions and have factored all contingencies in their planning.

The international community’s main concern is that Indian-Pakistani hostilities be defused immediately. The US President’s immediate reaction on learning of Operation Sindoor was that the situation should end early. The main fear of the international community is that a spiral of escalation should not take place between the two nuclear powers. Hence, it will call for restraint and it is probable that the Security Council will meet today itself and issue such a call.

A process of escalation can be avoided if Pakistan does not take action and hit Indian ground targets, whether civilian or military. If it does and that leads to large fatalities, then the Modi government will come under immense domestic pressure.

The task before Indian diplomats and the political leadership is to convince the world of the validity of Operation Sindoor, of putting pressure on Pakistan to end terror and to unequivocally state that the first step on the escalatory ladder between two nuclear states is an act of terrorism; hence, the Pahalgam attack was escalatory in itself.

Vivek Katju is former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs.

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