A deeper malaise

Deepak Dwivedi

The Pahalgam terror attack in the Kashmir Valley has come at a time when Jammu & Kashmir was showing unmistakable signs of return to normalcy following abrogation of Article 370. A democratically elected Government has been put in place, with unprecedented people’s participation and economic activities has picked up. The tragedy not only underscored Pakistan deep state’s desperation to use the tool of terrorism against India but also how Kashmir remains susceptible to the internal convulsions of the Pakistani state.

The 2019 constitutional reconfiguration of J&K ushered in a period of apparent quietude. With increased security measures and a largely intact ceasefire along the Line of Control, the region experienced a noticeable decline in insurgent activity. India’s diplomatic narrative of “restoration through integration” gained traction abroad, while investors and tourists cautiously re-engaged with the Valley. But it appears that such peace, though visually convincing, lacked strategic depth. The timing of the Pahalgam attack is no coincidence. It aligns with an intensifying political storm inside Pakistan – a nation now lurching from one crisis to another, governed by a fragile civilian dispensation kept afloat by military establishment. The irreversible erosion of democratic legitimacy has led to increased authoritarian tendencies and an even greater concentration of power in Rawalpindi’s hands. This internal malaise is compounded by a deteriorating economic landscape, characterised by unsustainable debt burdens, persistent inflationary pressures, and a dependence on external financial lifelines.

As General Asim Munir steers Pakistan’s military through tempests of domestic disarray and international uncertainty, the resurrection of Kashmir as the nation’s “jugular vein” is no idle incantation. Rather, it is a deliberate act of political theatre – an old refrain revived to fortify a faltering creed and divert the attention of a populace increasingly estranged from a discredited governing elite. This enduring tactic reveals a deeper malaise within Pakistan’s strategic psyche – a reliance on myth to mask paralysis, on symbolism to camouflage decay. It is the last refuge of a command structure increasingly adrift from both its people and its own sense of purpose.

This desperation became starkly visible during US Vice-President JD Vance’s visit to India last week. Coming just as Washington reaffirmed its strategic alignment with New Delhi, the sickening terror attack appeared as a pointed reminder from Islamabad that the Kashmir issue is far from resolved, even if its visibility on the global stage has faded. India, for its part, has responded with both urgency and assertion. By suspending the Indus Waters Treaty— long held as a rare example of cooperation amid enmity – New Delhi has signalled a recalibration of its red lines. Beyond conventional retaliatory measures such as surgical strikes, New Delhi has kept all options open.

For India, a tottering Pakistani polity, a distracted West, and Arab acquiescence together create a seeming permissiveness for punitive action, couched in the language of self-defence. However, the efficacy of New Delhi’s response rests upon a triad of imperatives – first, the systematic dismantling of cross-border terror infrastructures; second, the adroit harnessing of global sympathy to forestall diplomatic backlash; and third, the strategic exploitation of the deep fissures within the Pakistani polity, whose contradictions render it vulnerable to internal disarray. In this shadowed theatre of subcontinental power, the art of war must be tempered by the craft of diplomacy.

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