OPINION | Diplomatic fault lines: How China’s influence is shaping India-Pakistan tensions

Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated to unprecedented levels following the recent terrorist attack. Since the tragic April 22 assault in Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, daily exchanges of gunfire along the Line of Control have further deepened the crisis.

 

China’s response to the incident has been notably measured. Initially, Beijing extended its “sincere sympathies” and denounced the violence, though it refrained from explicitly naming Pakistan. Subsequently, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun underscored Beijing’s stance, stating, “China hopes that India and Pakistan will exercise restraint, work in the same direction, handle relevant differences properly through dialogue and consultation, and jointly uphold peace and stability in the region.”

 

China and Pakistan have maintained an enduring partnership, often referring to each other as “all-weather friends.” Their alliance is rooted in shared strategic objectives, primarily aimed at counterbalancing Indian influence and fostering economic cooperation—most notably through ambitious projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). With Beijing’s military and economic backing, Pakistan has bolstered its defence capabilities, enhancing its arsenal with advanced military technology. Additionally, Chinese investments in Pakistan’s infrastructure, and its military presence in Gilgit-Baltistan, have cemented Beijing’s foothold in the region, reinforcing its strategic influence.

 

This unwavering alliance continues to shape the delicate and conflict-ridden geopolitical triangle between India, Pakistan, and China. Jammu and Kashmir—long a flashpoint between India and Pakistan—gains even greater geopolitical weight due to its proximity to China’s western border.

 

China has consistently shielded Pakistan at the United Nations (UN), obstructing India's efforts to hold Islamabad accountable for terrorism. It blocked India's attempts to list LeT chief Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Masood Azhar as global terrorists under the UN Security Council's 1267 Sanctions Committee. Despite overwhelming evidence linking these individuals to terror attacks in India—including the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2019 Pulwama bombing—China has stalled or outright vetoed proposals, citing the need for "further verification" or "technical holds." 

 

Following the Pahalgam attack, Beijing in close coordination with Islamabad actively backed the "false flag" narrative at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which is being repeatedly peddled by Pakistan. Unlike the strong wording used after the Pulwama attack, the Pahalgam resolution omitted references to Pakistan-based terror outfits.

 

The tense situation with India has led to increased diplomatic engagement between China and Pakistan. On April 27, Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to apprise him of the escalating tensions. Wang reiterated Pakistan’s position advocating for an impartial investigation into the attack. Reaffirming Beijing’s steadfast alliance, Wang declared that China fully understands Pakistan’s security concerns and remains committed to supporting its sovereignty.

 

A day later, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, while replying to a question, said China welcomes all measures to "cool down" the current situation between India and Pakistan, including a "swift and fair investigation" into the terror attack.

 

On May 3, Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad to discuss the deteriorating situation. Sharif expressed gratitude for Beijing’s unwavering support, as China issued a statement endorsing Pakistan’s "legitimate security concerns" while urging both nations to exercise restraint.

 

During his meeting with Sharif, Ambassador Zaidong acknowledged Pakistan’s detailed presentation of its stance on the incident and reaffirmed China’s commitment to standing by Pakistan. 

 

Chinese diplomatic engagement intensified further when on May 5 Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong met with Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari in Islamabad to discuss the ongoing crisis. 

 

Following Ambassador Jiang Zaidong’s meeting with President Asif Zardari, cautioning against any military aggression toward Pakistan, Chinese strategist and former diplomat Victor Gao said, “China and Pakistan are all-weather, ironclad allies. This alliance should never be underestimated. Whenever Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened, China will stand firmly by its side, offering unwavering support and assistance. China’s commitment to defending Pakistan’s sovereignty is absolute.” 

 

As the Indian government continues its pursuit of those responsible for the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, a sophisticated network involving banned Chinese technology and alleged Pakistani complicity has been exposed. Investigations into the Pahalgam terror attack have uncovered the use of banned Chinese technology, including Huawei satellite phones and encrypted messaging applications, in the Pahalgam region at the time of the attack, which allowed the attackers to coordinate their movements while evading Indian surveillance. Huawei and ZTE, both Chinese telecom vendors, are barred from India's 5G networks, and Indian telecom companies have largely excluded them from their infrastructure due to security risks. 

 

Intelligence indicated that the terrorists used Chinese-manufactured Ultra Sets, sophisticated hybrid communication devices employed by Pakistan’s military and its non-state proxies. These devices operate via radio frequencies and satellite relays, making them difficult to detect using conventional Indian surveillance systems. Messages sent through these systems are encrypted, compressed, and routed via Chinese satellites to servers in Pakistan, bypassing traditional GSM and CDMA interception methods. The presence of Chinese-origin technology in cross-border terrorism has raised concerns about Beijing’s indirect role in facilitating militant operations. 

 

The strategic interplay between India, Pakistan, and China forms a deeply entangled geopolitical triangle, where shifting alliances and expanding regional influence significantly impact South Asia’s security and stability. Beijing’s close ties with Islamabad, coupled with its assertive regional presence, continue to reshape the delicate balance of power in the region.

 

Tensions between India and China have deepened due to Beijing’s support for Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir. The intricate web of strategic ties between India and Pakistan, coupled with China’s growing influence, forms a complex triangular dynamic that profoundly shapes South Asia’s security and stability.

 

Regarding the Indian Air Force's airstrikes conducted on May 7 in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, China’s Foreign Ministry expressed its dismay, calling the military operation regrettable. Emphasising its concern over the evolving situation, the China's Foreign Ministry statement reads, “China finds India’s military operation early this morning regrettable. We are concerned about the ongoing situation. India and Pakistan are and will always be each other’s neighbours. They’re both China’s neighbours as well. China opposes all forms of terrorism.”

 

China has responded to Pakistan's claims of using Chinese J-10 fighter jets against India by stating that they are "not familiar with the matter". Meanwhile, there are some videos online that appear to be Chinese parody songs trolling India over the fake news of Pakistan shooting down a Rafale fighter. 

 

The geopolitical triangle encompassing India, Pakistan, and China is among the most consequential in the region. The proximity of these three nuclear-armed nations heightens the risk that any military standoff could escalate into a broader conflict, raising the possibility of India facing a two-front war against a Sino-Pakistani military alliance. Additionally, China’s perception of the US containment efforts—including Washington’s strategic partnership with India—further complicates this dynamic. Pakistan has a vested interest in navigating the tensions between China and India, as its strategic alignment with Beijing serves multiple geopolitical objectives.

 

(Vaishali Basu Sharma is a security and economic affairs analyst)

 

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.

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