Why Pakistan's ignorant 'premature celebrations' scare analysts amid PM Modi's warnings

Egged on by its leaders who were quick to claim 'victory' against India in the recent conflict, Pakistanis, suffering under a severe economic crisis, have been celebrating for the last two days. Across the country, 'jubiliant' Pakistanis poured onto streets to hail their Army, which told them about their "success in war". 

 

However, a few of the country's analysts are speaking up against the premature and ignorant celebrations as the events of the past two weeks weigh heavily on their minds.

 

Najam Sethi, a prominent Pakistani journalist, told the Washington Post how he believes their triumphalism is premature and potentially dangerous. "The Pakistanis are rejoicing in their success and are not getting ready to face the next onslaught. … I’m scared, to be honest," he added. 

 

His statement comes as Pakistan tries to sweep under the carpet how serious the attack at several military bases in Pakistan, including one at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, was. It was this strike that alarmed the US into expediting a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

 

"We conveyed to the U.S. that this is now very serious," Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, told the Washington Post. "The U.S. itself saw that the attack on the air base in Rawalpindi was just too close for comfort. … It was edging towards an all-out war," Lodhi added. 

 

While social media was full of images from Nur Khan and how the strikes ravaged the Pakistan Air Force's key station, both the government and the army tried to hush it up. The media coverage was restricted, too, as reports in Western media said journalists were banned from coming near the premises. 

 

This is in the wake of how India has reiterated that it wouldn't be deterred by Pakistan's military response. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that the country would no longer tolerate Islamabad’s nuclear blackmail. "I am repeating again, we have just suspended our retaliatory action against Pakistan's terror and military camps. In the coming days, we will measure every step of Pakistan on the criterion of what sort of attitude Pakistan will adopt ahead," Modi said.

 

"India has made clear that major militant acts will now prompt increasingly forceful military responses," said Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi. "I think the nature of the operations and the depth of the strikes is going to result in significant adaptations by terrorist groups and their sponsors in Pakistan in the sense that it will no longer be possible for them to operate with impunity," he told the Washington Post. 

 

Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, too thinks that India wasn't excited about the ceasefire. "This ceasefire is bound to be a fragile one. It came about very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. India appears to have interpreted it differently than did the US and Pakistan," Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, told the BBC. "Also, since it was put together so hastily, the accord may lack the proper guarantees and assurances one would need at such a tense moment."

 

Christopher Clary, an associate professor of political science at the University at Albany and a former South Asia expert for the Defence Department, agrees. "There is this very real danger that another attack will come, and we will be back into a near war," Clary said. "We just don’t have that many wars between nuclear-armed powers to know how dangerous this deadly game can be."

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