New rules of escalation: To win the war before the war

THE abrupt end to Operation Sindoor was a bolt from the blue — actually, like an ‘out of syllabus’ event! It is good that full-scale war was avoided and one hopes no ceasefire violations take place. Even as the armed forces keep a wary eye on our borders, there are some takeaways that can be deduced as a hot debrief.

The latest provocations from Pakistan’s leadership were not strategic — they were symptomatic. Delivered in familiar tones, the speech was less policy and more performance, recycling tropes of grievance, historical injustice and ideological threat. But something fundamental has changed: the world has stopped listening.

India, too, didn’t respond. Not with outrage. Not with frenzy. And that silence spoke louder than rebuttal. For New Delhi, this wasn’t a moment to react — it was one to reveal. That Pakistan, once a state, is now a league. A league of the delusional, where the few who speak of chaos and confrontation drown out the many who yearn for stability and dignity.

Spark that failed: Kashmir answers back

If the intent was to ignite unrest in Kashmir, the response was sobering. In Pahalgam, and across the Valley, there were no flames of discontent, no angry mobs, no choreographed outrage. Instead, daily life continued in defiance of incitement. The people chose quiet resolve over performative rage.

India was hurt.

That was India’s first and deepest answer. Not from podiums, but from pavements. Not with speeches, but with stillness.

The strength of India lies in the coherence of its diversity. In Kashmir — as in Kanyakumari or Kohima — the Constitution guarantees belonging. The armed forces reflect it. The people uphold it. India’s unity in diversity, far from fragile, is now strategic doctrine. The call to divide was answered not by rhetoric, but by an enduring truth: India is many, and yet one.

Precision without spectacle

While words echoed across microphones, India acted —quietly, precisely and without theatrics. Strikes on terrorist infrastructure across the LoC and beyond were not announced with fanfare. They were calibrated, effective and purposeful.

Yet, the international response was telling: silence.

There was no outrage at Pakistan hosting UN-listed terrorists, draping them in military colours, giving them state funerals. No press conferences questioned why globally designated murderers were being honoured with honour guards. Once again, the global order failed its own test.

India, however, did not seek applause. The target was not moral high ground; it was deterrence. And, the message was clear: the Indian threshold has shifted. Responses now come without noise, but with weight.

Escalation, then de-escalation — on India’s terms

Pakistan reacted with its usual reflex: missiles, drones, alerts. Most were deflected, others neutralised. This triggered the second response – measured, but unmistakable. Not just terror camps, but airfields were targeted Not indiscriminately, but deliberately.

This wasn’t escalation for escalation’s sake. It was doctrine in action. Precision that communicated capability, intent and restraint. It hurt.

And it worked.

Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations reached out — not with bluster, but with a call for de-escalation. India accepted — not as concession, but as control. The choreography of this moment was profound: no sabre-rattling, just calibrated consequence.

This is always an area of  discussion, and debate, should we, shouldn’t we. Conflict termination is never an easy choice. Often times, observers are not into the loop on the political objectives. Hence, a debate ensues as it should.

In that response, India drew new red lines. No need to declare them — they were evident in action. The message: India will not start wars. But it will define when they begin, and when they end.

Strategic maturity is the real deterrent

This was not a flare-up. It was a test. And, India calibrated its response with telling effect.

Gone is the era of reactive rage. In its place is a posture of calibrated strength. Strike when needed. Stop when the hurt is acknowledged. Do not dramatise; operationalise.

What enabled this shift?

Capability, yes — India today has real-time options. But more importantly, clarity. There is no space for false dualities. Dialogue and terror do not coexist. There is no “moral equivalence" between an open democracy and a state-run terror league.

This maturity is not accidental. It is the product of institutional reform, civil-military coherence and national clarity. India does not seek war. But it no longer fears escalation. It is called calibrated deterrence.

By contrast, Pakistan’s internal decay has become externalised. Its nuclear blackmail is now just that — blackmail, not deterrent. The world sees it. Even if it doesn’t say so, the Indian PM has called out the blackmail, and declared a terrorist strike is an act of war.

A league that consumes its own

The tragedy of Pakistan is not its military — it is its people’s silence, coerced and helpless. A nation where moderate voices are silenced, dissent criminalised and truth becomes treason. The sane suffer. The insane strategise. And the international community, through its financial institutions and rhetorical platitudes, sustains this dysfunction.

India understands the difference. Our response has never been to punish the people of Pakistan. It has always been to isolate the machinery that holds them hostage.

But make no mistake: as our PM has stated, we will not allow that machinery to harm us. Nor to define the rules of engagement. Nuclear blackmail is now passe.

The world’s blind spot — and India’s moral burden

Here lies the core contradiction: terrorism is treated as a problem only when it hurts the West. For decades, India has pleaded for a global definition of terror. But institutions — paralysed by power politics and commercial interests — have equivocated.

Meanwhile, IMF loans go to states that bankroll terror. Innocents die while resolutions remain unsigned. Democracies are hijacked through open platforms and borderless networks. Mule routes are now strategy.

India has waited long enough. It now offers a pathway — not of dominance, but of design.

Not by exporting ideology, but by embodying a civilisational idea: the coexistence of difference within a shared destiny.

The new order: We will call it when it happens

Unity in diversity is not just India’s civilisational inheritance — it is its geopolitical offering. The only antidote to engineered division and identity weaponisation.

India will no longer wait for the world to define terrorism or its response. It will collaborate with those who call it out when it happens — not only when it hurts.

The price of silence is paid by the innocent, not the indifferent.

The future belongs to those who collaborate, not those who coerce.

The characteristics of conflict are changing. ‘To win the war before the war’ is part of the new escalatory ladder.  It has, I presume, many more rungs. Time will tell.

Lt Gen SS Mehta (Retd) is ex-Western Army Commander and Founder Trustee, Pune International Centre.

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