Opinion: Getting PoK Back Won't Destroy India's Economy — It Might Save It
As India launched Operation Sindoor, striking at terror infrastructure deep inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), a familiar question gripped the nation: Should India finally go all the way? In the days that followed, as Pakistan attacked Indian cities and Indian forces retaliated with precision, a war-like scenario began to unfold — only to be paused by a ceasefire. On the ground, sentiment was stark: many Indians wanted the fight to continue until India got PoK back. Critics, however, warned of an economic fallout of that.
The idea that a war against Pakistan to regain PoK would derail India's economy is a fear based on misunderstanding the long-term price of the current situation against the possible benefits of strong action. Pakistan's proxy conflict in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), including the expensive defence of the Siachen Glacier, has drained India financially for decades, with total losses estimated at Rs 11.66-14.96 lakh crore (US$140-180 billion) from 1989 to 2025. Instead of stopping India's economic emergence, the retrieval of PoK could shatter the financial costs of counter-terrorism, high-altitude warfare, and border insecurity, while tapping strategic and economic benefits.
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The Crushing Cost Of The Status Quo
Pakistan's policy of igniting militancy in J&K has been quite costly for India. The costs of the Indian and paramilitary deployments there, to the tune of Rs 4,000 crore for counter-insurgency annually and Rs 10,000 crore to Rs 15,000 crore for deployments of troops every year, have been a total of Rs 6.66-8.46 lakh crore since 1989. Controlling Siachen, the world's highest battlefield, contributes an additional Rs 3,650-5,475 crore per year (US$440-660 million) owing to rugged logistics — high-tech equipment, fuel, and medevacs.
These numbers don't account for indirect losses: J&K tourism, which saw 1.08 crore footfall in 2024, bleeds billions during assaults such as the 2025 Pahalgam massacre, with collective losses approaching Rs 3 lakh crore. Upset investments and damage to infrastructure only pump up the price tag.
War critics maintain India's $3.9 trillion economy can't afford the upfront cost of a war. But this overlooks the fact that India is already paying the price of a war, year by year, in blood and treasure. The 2025 escalation, which saw India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan's stock market plummeting by Rs 70,000 crore, highlights that preserving the status quo is not cheap or sustainable. Pakistani economic vulnerability — 70% debt-GDP ratio, reserves of $10.5 billion — does not allow it to support extended conflict, whereas India's high growth rate (7.77% in 2024) provides resilience.
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The Strategic Case For PoK
Regaining PoK would essentially change this dynamic. PoK under control would lock down the Pir Panjal range, rendering Pakistan's capacity to push militants across the Line of Control (LoC) ineffective. The hilly terrain of PoK, now used as a launching pad, would become India's armour, diminishing radically the necessity for the gigantic anti-terror machinery that gobbles up to Rs 15,000 crore every year. A single, Indian-controlled Kashmir would remove the LoC as a hotbed issue, cutting border security expenditure.
Siachen's cost burden would also get reduced. Occupying PoK would provide India with control of the most important watersheds in the Kargil-Drass area, making logistical problems easier and lowering the requirement for high-altitude interventions. Estimates consider Siachen's cost annually could decrease by 50% or higher, reducing by Rs 1,800-2,700 crore annually. Within ten years, this by itself could costRs 18,000-27,000 crore less, covering initial expenses of the war. In addition, control of PoK would sabotage Pakistan's cooperation with China on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through Gilgit-Baltistan, improving India's geopolitical standing.
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Economic Benefits Over Savings
Apart from savings on costs, integration of PoK could unlock economic potential. J&K tourism, already a Rs 20,000 crore industry under war, could double with peace, attracting world travellers to PoK's unspoiled valleys. The country's hydropower potential within the region, now suppressed due to cross-border conflicts, has the potential to produce thousands of megawatts, energising northern India while cutting down the import of energy. Investments would pour into PoK, as they increased a whopping 328.4% in J&K during FY25, developing jobs and infrastructure. A settled Kashmir would augment J&K's GSDP (Rs 2.3 trillion, 2023-24) by 20-30%, adding Rs 50,000-70,000 crore to the Indian economy in one decade.
Critics cite the 1999 Kargil War, which increased India's fiscal deficit to 5.1%, as a warning. But a war over PoK would be different: Pakistan's weakened military, stretched by internal unrest and General Asim Munir's waning control, cannot compete with India's conventional advantage. India's defence modernisation guarantees precision and efficiency, reducing economic disruption. In contrast to the open-ended proxy war, a winning campaign might be decided quickly, with expenses spread by long-term gain.
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Responding To The Naysayers
Doubters predict nuclear peril or international condemnation, but both are exaggerated. Pakistan's nuclear threshold is high, and its weapons are defence, not offence, as strategic studies indicate. Global appeals for restraint, such as from the UN and the US in April 2025, would continue, but India's increasing diplomatic strength — witnessed through its G20 presidency — can deal with blowback. The cost of war in terms of the economy, placed at Rs 1-2 lakh crore for a brief conflict, is small compared to the Rs 11.66-14.96 lakh crore already wasted on Pakistan's aggression. Doing nothing continues this drain, while doing something provides closure.
India's past indicates resilience against foreign aggressions, teaches us that courageous action can remake fates. Now, India's determination indicates willingness to put an end to Pakistan's adventurism. The recovery of PoK is not economic suicide, it's an investment. By dismantling the terror infrastructure, securing Siachen's flanks, and unlocking J&K's potential, India can save billions, shore up its economy, and quieten those who underestimate its determination.
The decision is clear: keep bleeding from Pakistan's proxy war or act firmly to save and thrive. India's economy won't take a step back by a decade, as is being feared, but it will leap forward, free from a conflict that has kept it back for far too long.
The writer is an Indian Navy veteran and military historian.
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