The Pahalgam Attack And Its Aftermath
On April 22, around 2.45 pm, a group of armed men clothed in camouflage fatigues shot dead 26 innocent tourists in the Baisaran meadow, 7 km from Pahalgam in Kashmir. Most victims were Hindus. After the mayhem, the perpetrators melted away from the spot.
An outfit named The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), based in Pakistan, claimed credit for the attack. Strangely, the TRF retracted its claim after a couple of days, and Pakistan quickly disassociated itself from the massacre. Interestingly, when India approached the United Nations to designate TRF as a terrorist outfit, it was Pakistan which vehemently opposed it.
Post the attack, the Indian government took a series of decisions, including closure of the border, immediate return of all Pakistanis visiting India, reduction of officials in the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi from 55 to 30, and holding of the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance till Pakistan takes effective action to prevent cross-border terrorism.
Pakistan retaliated by expelling Indian diplomats and officials from the High Commission of India in Islamabad and suspended bilateral talks, limited visas for Indian nationals to Pakistan, limited cross-border trade across the LoC and the Wagah-Attari border, threatened to suspend the Simla Agreement, and sought support from China, Turkey, the UN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
Operation Sindoor: On the nights of May 6 and 7, the Indian Air Force and Army undertook measured and meticulously crafted precision attacks on nine terrorist sites in Pakistan, including those of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) headquarters in Bahawalpur and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) headquarters in Mudrike. India did garner some diplomatic support for its careful and calibrated counter-terrorism act from major powers, including the US, the UK, France and Russia. But all of them emphasised the need for de-escalation in the same breath. China, of course, remained neutral. In response to India’s Operation Sindoor, Pakistan closed its airspace and resorted to intense artillery and mortar shelling along the LoC.
In response to Pakistan’s air attack on May 8 and 9, India conducted retaliatory strikes on Pakistani air defence systems in Lahore, Karachi and Nur Khan with precision-guided missiles. The Indian Navy kept guard in the Arabian Sea with a contingent of combat-ready ships to prevent possible attacks on the western front.
International efforts for ceasefire: While the battle of the two nuclear powers raged, continuous efforts were undertaken by several countries to facilitate a ceasefire. The most important among them were the United States, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China also spoke to his counterparts in India and Pakistan.
President Donald Trump was the first to reveal the India-Pakistan ceasefire. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed the ceasefire thereafter. Then came the statement by the Indian Foreign Secretary that the “Director General (Military Operations) of Pakistan called the Director General (Military Operations) of India at 1535 hrs, and it was agreed … that both sides would stop … military action … with effect from 1700 hrs IST.”
Not all analysts like to give full credit to President Trump on the ceasefire. Trump himself has said that the ceasefire is a “bigger success” than he will ever be given credit for.
The new normal: Post the India-Pakistan conflict, there is a new trend to rehyphenate the two countries. At the top of the list is President Trump, who has said several times that he is willing to mediate, adding that both of them are his great friends. India is four times larger than Pakistan in land mass, six times in population and 12 times in GDP. India has religious and linguistic diversity, and Pakistan is an Islamic country with one language and one religion. Further, India is a democracy, and Pakistan has been less so in its history. Still, the Financial Times in London hyphenated the two and printed a headline on May 09, “India-Pakistan: A conflict in the hands of two religious strongmen”. The two countries, it appears, are now considered nuclear equals and hyphenated because of it, and that needs to be addressed immediately by India.
A second visible change is that the intended emphasis on terrorism has been subsumed by global perceptions that the South Asian nuclear flashpoint has a causative relationship with the issue of Kashmir, and Pakistan does cleverly link the two. President Trump is quoted to have said seven times that he will mediate on Kashmir, and such a thing never happened with past US presidents, who seemed to have recognised the spirit of the Simla Agreement.
The old eyeball-to-eyeball conventional warfare along the LoC and the international border is now passe. Today, it is the age of guided drones and missiles, radars, artificial intelligence and technology. China being an all-weather friend of Pakistan, its scientific, technical and technological prowess is now available to the latter. A study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute notes that China is equal to or ahead of the US in 37 out of 44 critical and emerging technologies. Around 81% of defence procurement of Pakistan is now from China. In this new scenario, Pakistan enjoys a formidable advantage. The loss of 4 or 5 Indian fighter jets, including two French Rafales, and the role played by the Chinese J-10 fighter jet fitted with a PL-15 guided missile, if true as claimed by not just Pakistan but also defence analysts in different parts of the world, need to be carefully studied for the development of new strategies for India.
There is an old adage which says that in the event of a war, the first casualty is truth. The claims, some unbelievable, made by either side may be far from the real truth. Be that as it may, as Professor Christine Fair says, India and Pakistan both have got their pounds of flesh in the May 2025 conflict, and that should be a good enough reason for a ceasefire acceptable to both.
The future scenario needs to be considered carefully by India. Firstly, cross-border terrorism, particularly when it is sponsored by States, needs to be brought back to the table. Second, the re-hyphenation needs to be tackled. Thirdly, the importance of intelligence and emerging technologies, including AI, in the area of defence needs to be given high priority. Unless there is a quick and huge effort to develop ourselves rapidly and innovate intelligently in technology and its applications for civilian and military use, we may lag behind, and that will be to our own detriment.
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