India’s careful dance with Balochistan’s independence hope

The recent appeal by exiled Baloch leaders for India’s moral, diplomatic, and strategic support in their decades-long struggle for independence has reignited a complex debate. Their plea, drawing parallels with India’s role in Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, comes at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are high, particularly after India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted terror camps and military sites in Pakistan. While the Baloch cause evokes sympathy, India must approach this issue with utmost caution, balancing its principles with strategic realities.

The Baloch independence movement is not new. Since Pakistan annexed the princely state of Kalat in 1948, the region has seen five major uprisings, each marked by growing violence but lacking unity. Today, the movement is fragmented, led by tribal leaders, secretive militant groups, and exiled activists like Brahumdagh Bugti and Mehran Marri. Operating from Europe and North America, these leaders have struggled to gain international traction. Pakistan’s relentless crackdowns—through raids, abductions, and extrajudicial killings—have further weakened the movement on the ground.

The Baloch leaders’ outreach to India, amplified after Operation Sindoor, is less a sign of strength and more a desperate bid for global recognition. They praise India’s firm stand against Pakistan and urge New Delhi to back their fight, citing the Bangladesh precedent. However, as experts point out, the two cases are vastly different. “Bangladesh faced a humanitarian crisis with 10 million refugees flooding into India, creating a moral and strategic imperative for intervention,” notes Amitabh Tiwari, Managing Partner at Ascendia Strategies, in a Moneycontrol report. Balochistan, in contrast, shares no border with India, has a smaller population, and lacks a unified leadership or mass exodus to justify similar involvement.

Supporting Baloch separatists could also backfire diplomatically. Pakistan would seize the opportunity to equate Balochistan with Kashmir, muddying India’s position that Kashmir is an internal matter. This could weaken India’s global standing, especially after the recent Pahalgam terror attack, which exposed the world’s inconsistent support for India’s fight against terrorism. Moreover, backing the Baloch cause risks straining ties with Iran, a key partner in projects like the Chabahar port. Iran, which has its own restive Baloch population, has warned against foreign meddling.

Then there’s China, Pakistan’s close ally. Balochistan is central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Any Indian support for Baloch separatists could be seen as a direct challenge to Beijing’s investments in Gwadar, potentially deepening China-Pakistan military ties. This would complicate India’s strategic calculus in an already tense region.

On the ground, the Baloch movement lacks the cohesion needed for a sustained uprising. Groups like the Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Liberation Front carry out sporadic attacks, but they lack broad local support or coordination. Most calls for independence come from abroad, amplified by social media and foreign media rather than a robust domestic base. India would be unwise to pin its hopes on a movement that survives largely on external sympathy.

Yet, India cannot ignore Pakistan’s human rights abuses in Balochistan. The Pakistani military’s brutal response to Operation Sindoor—marked by a surge in abductions and killings, as reported by human rights groups—has only deepened Baloch alienation. Dr. Shalini Chawla, a Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, told Moneycontrol that Balochistan will remain a “major headache” for Pakistan’s army, with the movement likely to gain momentum. India has

India has rightly called out Pakistan’s double standards, raising Balochistan’s plight at global forums to expose Pakistan’s hypocrisy on Kashmir. But highlighting human rights abuses is not the same as endorsing separatism. Supporting Balochistan’s independence could set a dangerous precedent in a region already fraught with border disputes.

India’s current approach—voicing concern without committing to the Baloch cause—is strategically sound. By maintaining ambiguity, New Delhi keeps Pakistan on edge while avoiding the pitfalls of open support. Backing a fragmented movement could hand Pakistan a propaganda victory, allowing it to deflect from its failures, like those exposed by Operation Sindoor, and refocus global attention on India’s alleged interference.

The Baloch struggle deserves empathy, but India must prioritize its long-term interests. Diplomacy, not adventurism, is the way forward. New Delhi should continue exposing Pakistan’s missteps in Balochistan while strengthening its own regional partnerships. As Tiwari aptly puts it, “Global politics doesn’t work on emotion alone.” India’s restraint is not weakness—it’s wisdom.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. Contact: girishlinganna@gmail.com )

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