Opinion: Every Monsoon, The Most Vulnerable Pay The Price. Can 2025 Be Different?

Year after year, we watch the rains arrive and sweep away lives, homes, dreams and hopes. Despite years of planning and preparedness strategies, the country continues to respond more than it prepares. With the India Meteorological Department predicting an above-normal monsoon for 2025 and neutral El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, the signs for this year are already flashing red. The forecast is no longer a warning. It is a directive: act now!

In coastal Maharashtra, particularly Mumbai and the Konkan region, the outlook suggests intense rain spells. The past holds painful memories of losses due to floods. Yet, much of the infrastructure remains outdated. Mumbai’s drainage system, built decades ago, was never meant to handle the volume of water that now arrives within hours, not days. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation has made commendable efforts by installing smart pumps, deploying IoT-based monitoring systems, and desilting major drains. But several chokepoints still exist, especially in informal settlements and low-lying areas. If the work is not accelerated, the familiar cycle of flooding and rescue will repeat.

Kerala and Karnataka are also on edge. With previous years seeing dam overflows and hillsides collapsing into villages, the concern now lies in managing reservoirs before they turn from resources into threats. A similar story echoes in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. These are not isolated incidents anymore, the soil is saturated, and the terrain fragile. Landslides and flash floods are not random; they are predictable consequences of delayed risk reduction.

Eastern UP and Bihar are staring at a potential deluge. The Ganga, Ghagra, Gandak, and Kosi rivers carry both silt and sorrow. Their embankments remain vulnerable, particularly in stretches where repair work has been deferred year after year. These floods do not merely submerge fields; they sweep away entire livelihoods. And though Assam is expecting below-normal rainfall, its flooding risks remain significant due to upstream flow, glacial runoff, and poor drainage systems. The districts of Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Barpeta, Darrang, and Nalbari need to take measures beyond routine preparations.

It is not just rural and hilly regions that face a threat. Urban India, too, is buckling. Flash flood hotspots such as Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Patna, Gurugram, and Noida are struggling to balance construction and drainage. Many of these cities are caught in a cycle of reactive repair. To prevent flooding this year, immediate attention must go to clearing blocked drains, creating retention ponds, laying permeable surfaces, and maintaining smart pumps. With just weeks before the skies open up, delays can no longer be excused.

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Is India Prepared? An IMD Alert Is Not Enough 

Preparedness needs more than an alert from the weather department. It requires relentless coordination across all levels and stakeholders. District administrations must meet every fortnight to monitor progress and plan for preparedness and mitigation. Control rooms with multisectoral and multi-stakeholder leads should already be functional. Check gates and dams need to be inspected. Relief materials must be prepositioned. Vulnerable pockets such as slums, low-lying areas, and resettlement colonies should be mapped and monitored. These are not new suggestions. The success of 2025 will depend on doing old things on time.

The approach also needs to evolve with empathy and inclusion. Messages about early warnings must reach every household, irrespective of gender, literacy level, or location. The Sachet app launched by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has the potential to be the game changer.

To review the effectiveness and reach of these alerts, a nationwide survey should be commissioned involving grassroot organisations to know how inclusive these messages are and how the access can be further improved. Radio broadcasts, community announcements, and local volunteers must supplement digital alerts. Relief planning must use sex-disaggregated data to identify what women, girls, transgender persons, the elderly, and differently-abled persons need before a disaster strikes. To be fair and effective it is important to understand the vulnerable groups are not a homogenous group. The needs of all women, or all differently abled persons are not the same. Evacuation shelters must be safe and dignified, with adequate privacy, clean water, sanitation, and health access from Day One.

And once the monsoons hit, we must keep watching. Real-time weather monitoring, mobile agriculture advisory systems, and rapid response units need to be activated without delay. Relief workers must be trained not only to rescue but to support. Clean water, clean and nutritious food, and sanitation are non-negotiable.

Different stakeholders need to work in tandem to make this year different. The bigger question is, who will lead this coordination? The answer must include everyone. Government line departments, inter-agency coordination platforms such as inter agency groups in states and NGOs, civil society groups, corporate CSR arms, research institutions, faith-based networks, and media houses all have to work in lockstep. No single agency can carry this load alone.

There is a narrow window left. Every hour now spent on preparation is worth more than a day of response in July. The stories from 2024 of children washed away in Bihar, of slum dwellers stranded on rooftops in Mumbai, of homes buried under mud in Uttarakhand must not repeat. Year 2025 does not have to look like every year before it. 

The writer is a humanitarian and development professional.

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