The golden dome: A bold vision or an overpriced dream?

Donald Trump has unveiled an ambitious plan to shield America from missile attacks with a space-based defense system called the “Golden Dome.” Inspired by Ronald Reagan’s vision from decades ago, Trump claims today’s advanced technology makes this dream achievable. Unlike Israel’s Iron Dome, which protects against short-range rockets, the Golden Dome aims to cover the entire United States using thousands of satellites. These satellites would detect enemy missiles and destroy them before they reach American soil.

During his campaign, Trump promised to fund this project through a “big and beautiful” tax bill, allocating $25 billion to kickstart it, with total costs estimated at $175 billion. However, Congress has yet to approve this funding, and experts warn the price tag could balloon to over $500 billion, taking decades to complete. Trump’s timeline of two and a half to three years is also considered overly optimistic.

The promise of “close to 100% protection” sounds reassuring, but it’s not that simple. A recent study by the American Physical Society highlights the challenge: to stop just ten North Korean Hwasong-18 missiles, the U.S. would need around 16,000 defensive missiles in space. Why so many? Hitting a missile in space is like shooting a bullet with another bullet at incredible speeds. Even the best systems aren’t perfect, so multiple interceptors are needed for each incoming threat. Add to that the vastness of space, unpredictable missile paths, and enemy decoys, and the numbers grow quickly.

The challenge gets tougher with time and territory. If decision-makers want just 30 seconds to think before launching interceptors, the number of defensive missiles jumps to 36,000. Protecting additional areas like Alaska or the Midwest would require thousands more. It’s like guarding a massive fence line that stretches in every direction—each new section needs its own network of defenders.

The Golden Dome is a response to a rapidly changing threat. For years, U.S. defenses focused on missiles coming over the North Pole from places like Russia. But new hypersonic missiles can change direction mid-flight, and “fractional orbital” missiles circle the Earth before striking. Intelligence reports now show potential attacks from all directions—north, south, east, and west. Canada, a close ally, is even considering joining the project, as it faces similar risks.

But the Golden Dome isn’t just about defense—it’s part of a larger battle for control of space. Russia and China are developing weapons to destroy satellites, which the Golden Dome would rely on. Russia’s Cosmos 2553 satellite, for instance, is suspected to be a test for a nuclear bomb that could wipe out satellites across vast areas. China, meanwhile, is building anti-satellite weapons at an alarming pace, according to U.S. Space Command.

Space is no longer just for exploration or communication. It’s a new battleground where nations are racing to build defenses while creating weapons to disable each other’s satellites. This creates a dangerous cycle: America plans to deploy thousands of satellites for the Golden Dome, while Russia and China develop tools to take them out.

The stakes are higher than military defense. Satellites power everyday life—phone calls, internet, GPS navigation, even banking and power grids rely on precise timing from space. Attacks like jamming (blocking GPS signals) or spoofing (sending fake signals) are already on the rise. If space weapons destroy these satellites, it could disrupt everything from ATMs to traffic lights.

The competition in space is getting intense. Russia’s Cosmos 2576 satellite recently shadowed an American spy satellite, raising fears of a potential space weapon. China’s TJS-4 satellite cleverly used the sun’s shadow to hide from an American surveillance satellite. France is now exploring “bodyguard” systems to protect its satellites with robots or lasers. Even the U.S. is playing this game—last month, an American satellite “buzzed” two Chinese satellites, coming dangerously close in a provocative move.

This cat-and-mouse game in space shows how nations are using satellites to stalk, intimidate, and outsmart each other. What was once a peaceful frontier is now a high-tech battlefield, with each side accusing the other of the same aggressive tactics they use themselves.

The Golden Dome is a bold idea, but it comes with big questions. Can America afford a project that could cost half a trillion dollars? Will it deliver the near-perfect protection Trump promises? And how will it fare in a space increasingly crowded with threats? As the U.S. pushes forward, it must balance ambition with reality, ensuring this shield doesn’t become a golden dream too costly to achieve.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. Contact: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

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