Opinion: The Strange Reasons Behind Asim Munir's Anti-India Tirades

Munir is at it again. The newly minted Field Marshal of Pakistan, while addressing the cadets of the Pakistan Naval Academy recently, burst into yet another tirade against India, tickboxing Kashmir, India's 'aggressiveness' and ironically calling his country a 'net regional stabiliser'. That in itself should have had the audience in splits, given his country's shelter for terrorists of all hues, and for all neighbourhoods, not barring China at one time, and Iran still. It would be ridiculous were it not so dangerous.

The question is, why is Munir at it again, together with his echo chamber and political minions?

The Harangue

Apart from the expected language about the "oppressed people" of Kashmir - more than 14,000 of whom have been murdered by his jihadis - he warned against India's "unprovoked aggression" in 2019 and 2025 and said that Pakistan's "measured response" had prevented escalation. Then came a bizarre statement that India "creates tensions" when Pakistan is close to winning its war against terrorism. Considering that Pakistan's terrorist totals have been steadily growing according to its own and global reports, and that the number of those killed and 'disappeared' in ham-handed 'counter terrorism' operations continues to increase, this seems like the usual blame game.

But one does need to see what this particular outrage is aimed at. Remember, Munir made a similar tirade just five days before Pahalgam happened. In an eerie replay, the attack that killed 13 Pakistani soldiers was just a day before this particular shouting match. Not just that. Very unusually, Pakistan blamed India for the attack. It usually doesn't.

The 'Victory' 

Quoting from the Koran, Munir then declared, "How often has it happened that a small number defeated a large number ...". That applies to Pakistan and the (US-sponsored) jihad movement that defeated the Soviet Union. But it certainly doesn't apply to the Pakistan army, which lost every single war it fought with India, including Kargil.

Even so, one has to hand it to Pakistan. It has managed to turn everything into a 'victory' with some smart media legwork. After Balakot, it declared that all India hit were some trees, not terrorist camps; it even accused India of 'eco-terrorism' against a reserved forest. This was accepted by the general media given the lack of adequate proof.

During Operation Sindoor, Pakistan claimed it hit several Indian aircraft. That the Indian Armed Forces then went on to strike every single sensitive air base, including Sargodha, the holiest of the holies, mattered not at all. It was still a 'win'. At some point, Delhi needs to examine what Pakistan deems a 'victory'.

The High Comes Down Low

Here's the core issue, though. There is no doubt that Munir and the army were on a popular high immediately after Operation Sindoor, with his many misdemeanours, including jailing not just a Prime Minister - par for the course in Pakistan - but also an ISI chief, forgotten.

Glory, however, dissipates fast during peacetime. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is finding that out the hard way, with a 2022 case for corruption reopened against him almost immediately after the war closed. Munir has had his own embarrassment. Right Munir gloriously proposed a Nobel Peace prize for Trump, the latter launched a bombing campaign on Pakistan's neighbouring Muslim state. Naturally, this necessitated a turnaround for Pakistan; ultimately, in its 'official' response, it was compelled to 'condemn' the American attack. That dual position has led to memes on X, most notably pointing at Munir's willingness to knife Iran in the back.

Back to Basics

Meanwhile, speculation is rife about what Munir has offered in return for what was truly a high-profile, never-seen-before lunch. The most obvious answer is intel on Iran, which Pakistan has provided for years. At this critical point, when no one is really sure whether Iran's nuclear ambitions are still in play, this becomes critical. Sure, there are other actors, such as the Azeris and Iraqis. But America's CENTCOM (Central Command) has operated from here for years. Besides, there is no need for traditional 'bases' in the age of long-range drones. Possible also are small groups of Special Forces, and overflight rights.

For India, here's the bottom line: as long as US forces are on the ground, it will be difficult for India to attack Pakistan in response to another terrorist strike. Watch their space.

The Echo Chamber Speaks

Meanwhile, look at the preparation by Munir's echo chamber. A certain well-known journalist has claimed that he has information about 'secret' plans, that India and Israel are planning to attack Pakistan's nuclear sites. He quotes a June 18 tweet by Israeli Professor Meir Masri, who is the director of geopolitics at Hebrew University Jerusalem and former deputy minister of defence: "After Iran's campaign, we may seek to dismantle Pakistan's nuclear programme". He quotes a few more academics in this regard and references posts on Indian accounts.

This is the 'secret' plan that's apparently supposed to be the apex point of 'Operation Sindoor 2'. This might have been dismissed as clickbait in another case. But it may well be that Pakistan is preparing for a possible attack by India - naturally after what it always calls a 'false flag' terror strike. That has been its claim for years. All this is echoed by the rather unpredictable Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, and other politicians.

Water As A Pretence

Then there is the very real fact that by October, the next sowing season will start, and India would likely again reduce the water flow - or so it is alleged - of other dams. In May, it had carried out the first desilting operations on Baglhiar and Salal, the first such exercise since their inception. That requires the dam to be first flushed out - sending silt down the river - and then filled up again, which takes about a month. The press release by the Indus River Systems Authority (IRSA) of Pakistan did take a 'unanimous' view that available water for the kharif crop had dropped precipitously due to reduced water release by India, but only as part of an overall decrease.

The IRSA has been the focus of criticism for its inability to maintain its canals and for not increasing Pakistan's legitimate water storage capability over the years. Therefore, while there is a strong element of 'crying wolf', the Pakistan army, now fully in control of the state with a civilian government existing only in name, will have to take note. Again, the echo chamber - notably, Bilawal Bhutto - has been warning of war on the question of the Indus treaty 'abeyance'.

The Contours Of Terrorism

Finally, Trump is expected to arrive in India for the upcoming Quad summit, and given very long 'traditions', one can't rule out a terrorist incident coinciding with his visit. Even the recent Pahalgam attack happened when Vice President JD Vance was in India. With the President's appetite for mediation, that would be an opportune time. In fact, far too many aspects are coinciding at more or less the same time to afford us any degree of comfort.

There are also some other curious aspects to terrorism that need to be noted. On May 25, in a tragic accident in Balochistan, a horrifying attack on an army school bus killed 40 children. This came well after Operation Sindoor had ended and when a 'ceasefire' was in place. The incident was horrifying and quite unlike any recent India-Pakistan clash. Remember that India had observed a two-minute silence in Parliament when a similar attack hit the Army Public School in Peshawar in December 2014. Surely, no national leader would authorise such a strike, and, in actual fact, India and Pakistan have in recent years limited their strikes to security personnel.

Something doesn't smell right. Does someone else intend to keep Delhi and Pakistan suitably destabilised? It might be a good idea to put our heads together on this one.

(Tara Kartha was with the National Security Council Secretariat)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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