Will India’s future wars be contact-less?

Operation Sindoor was purely air warfare, which by nature is contact-less. However, the aerial battles took place across very long distances, the kind not seen before. Opposing planes never saw each other, nor were borders crossed! Similarly, Israel and Iran attacked each other with drones and missiles from very long distances with pinpoint accuracy. Anti-drone/missile weapons and measures cannot provide 100% safety.

This has led some to surmise that future wars will be contact-less. However, it is essential to realise that the last two conflicts mentioned above were not wars but short operations in which land and naval forces were hardly used.

The aim of both the operations was punitive. In case, Op Sindoor had extended by even a couple of weeks, land forces would have got involved, since there is a common border between the two countries and at places troops are deployed eyeball to eyeball that would have meant ‘contact warfare’. Thus, concluding that future wars will be contactless based on very limited experience, is not prudent.

In the fighting on the ground particularly in mountainous regions — as existing on India’s borders — contact warfare will form an essential part.

Perforce, tactics in the battle area will have to undergo changes due to increased air-borne threats. Co-ordinated use of infantry and tank operations will invite considerable losses. Achieving ‘tactical surprise’ would become difficult. Electronic warfare and integrated air defence will assume critical importance. Measures will have to be taken to ensure the safety of Command and Control nodes and safety of commanders, which would be priority targets for drones.

It would be essential to keep up with technological developments available to our adversaries. This cat and mouse means of waging war is too dependent on technology, which is changing fast.

In 2023, Ukraine produced three lakh drones. The target for 2024 was one million small drones, over 10,000 strike drones with a flight range of a few hundred kilometres and more than a thousand with a greater range. While starting a non-contact war, the planners have to think of production at such kind of a large scale. It is doubtful if India and Pakistan, in particular, can afford such huge numbers. No wonder, Op Sindoor lasted only 88 hours.

Thus, it may be prudent to surmise that there may be a reduction in contact fighting and a greater use of drones and missiles than earlier. But in the Indian context, war with Pakistan is likely to experience more contact fighting than non-contact warfare. Both countries cannot afford to have the requisite number of missiles, drones and ammunition to fight more than a month. Also, both being nuclear nations, the developed world will intervene.

Against China, India has to raise its capacity and technology for missiles and drones and based on the experience in the Ukraine war. A holistic plan and policy need to be worked out.

Lt Gen Harbhajan Singh (retd) is former Signal Officer-in-Chief.

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