IPL 2025 Playoff Race: What Each Team Must Do To Qualify
With 57 games done, the IPL 2025 playoff race is at fever pitch. For Kolkata Knight Riders, the equation is simple yet brutal; win every match or pack their bags. But even that may not be enough.
KKR's fate now rests not just on their own form but also on Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals slipping up in their remaining fixtures. One misstep and it's curtains.
Following their defeat to CSK on Wednesday, Mumbai Indians sit fourth with 14 points, while Delhi Capitals trail close behind at fifth with 13. With MI having two games left and DC three, Kolkata Knight Riders remain mathematically in the race.
Ajinkya Rahane-led side's playoff hopes now depend upon a near-perfect storm of results. Usually 14 points which used to be a benchmark for a playoff berth may no longer be enough in IPL 2025.
With four teams having already crossed that threshold in early May, even 16 points might not secure qualification this time. In this breakdown, we bring you the qualification scenarios and probabilities for all ten franchises while highlighting what each team must do to stay in contention for the knockout stage.
IPL 2025 Points Table
| Position |
Team |
Matches |
Won |
Lost |
No Result |
Points |
| 1 |
GT |
11 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
16 |
| 2 |
RCB |
11 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
16 |
| 3 |
PBKS |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
| 4 |
MI |
12 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
14 |
| 5 |
DC |
11 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
13 |
| 6 |
KKR |
12 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
11 |
| 7 |
LSG |
11 |
5 |
6 |
0 |
10 |
| 8 |
SRH |
11 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
7 |
| 9 |
RR |
12 |
3 |
9 |
0 |
6 |
| 10 |
CSK |
12 |
3 |
9 |
0 |
6 |
Qualifier 1: The top two teams from the league stage (1st vs 2nd) square-off & the winner advances to the final. The loser will get a second chance in Qualifier 2.
Eliminator: The third and fourth-placed teams (3rd vs 4th) clash & the winner advances to Qualifier 2, while the loser is eliminated.
Qualifier 2: The loser of Qualifier 1 faces the winner of the Eliminator in Qualifier 2. The winner of this match secures a spot in the final, while the loser is eliminated from the tournament.
Final: The winner of Qualifier 1 will meet the winner of Qualifier 2 in the final to crown as the IPL champion.
Gujarat Titans Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: DC (A), LSG (H) & CSK (H)
- Position: 1st – 11 matches, 16 points, NRR +0.867
- Probability: 95%
GT have three matches remaining, giving them some flexibility. Even a single win will likely secure 18 points and a spot in the playoffs. Three wins would guarantee a top-two finish, ensuring a place in Qualifier 1. However their clashes against DC & LSG are crucial. DC could still sneak into the playoffs with a win, while LSG has the potential to upset other teams. GT’s strong Net Run Rate (NRR) offers a safety net in case of tie scenarios.
RCB Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: LSG (A), SRH (H) & KKR (H)
- Position: 1st – 11 matches, 16 points, NRR +0.482
- Probability: 90%.
RCB are virtually through to the playoffs. One more win from their remaining three games will seal qualification, while two victories could secure a top-two finish, barring a late surge from other contenders. Their Net Run Rate is stable but not foolproof meaning a heavy defeat could complicate things in a crowded points table. Still with momentum on their side, RCB's playoff chances sit comfortably above 95%.
Punjab Kings Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: DC (H), MI (H) & RR (A)
- Position: 2nd – 11 matches, 15 points, NRR +0.376
- Probability: 80%
One more win & PBKS will reach 17 points which should be enough for a top-four finish. Two wins would all but confirm their playoff berth. However with tough fixtures ahead against MI and DC, Punjab’s path is far from easy. A 1-2 finish could leave them vulnerable at 17, relying on Net Run Rate and other results, especially if DC or KKR mount a late push.
Mumbai Indians Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: PBKS (A) & DC (H)
- Position: 4th: 12 matches, 14 points, NRR +1.274
- Probability: 70%
The Hardik Pandya-led side's defeat to GT snapped a six-match winning streak and dealt a blow to their playoff ambitions. Now, they must win at least one of their remaining games against PBKS and DC to stay in the hunt. Two wins will seal qualification, but back-to-back losses will eliminate them. A loss to PBKS might still leave the door open, but defeat against DC could prove fatal to their campaign.
Delhi Capitals Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: PBKS (A), GT (H) & MI (A)
- Position: 5th -11 matches, 13 points, NRR +0.362
- Probability: 60%
DC need to win at least two of their remaining three games to stay in the playoff hunt, taking them to a strong 17-point finish. A single win (15 points) would leave their fate hanging on Net Run Rate and other results. Moreover, victories against GT or MI could both damage rivals and strengthen DC’s case.
Kolkata Knight Rider Qualification Scenario
Remaining Fixtures: SRH (A) & RCB (A)
Position: 6th – 12 matches, 11 points, NRR +0.193
Probability: 5%
The Ajinkya Rahane-led side must secure victory in their remaining games to reach 15 points and stay in contention. Even then, their fate depends on MI and DC not surpassing that mark. A single loss could knock them out. However, they’re still in the race & it rests heavily on the other team's results and luck.
Lucknow Super Giants Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: RCB (H), GT (A) & SRH (H)
- Position: 7th – 11 matches, 10 points, NRR -0.469
- Probability: 5%
The Rishabh Pant-led side need to win all three of their remaining matches to reach 16 points and stay in the playoff hunt. With a poor Net Run Rate, they also require at least one dominant win or hope for DC and KKR to falter. A single loss could end their campaign. It is worth noting that victories over RCB and GT would not only boost their tally but also deal a direct blow to fellow playoff contenders.
Sunrisers Hyderabad Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: KKR (H), RCB (A) & LSG (A)
- Position: 8th – 11 matches, 7 points, NRR -1.192
- Status: Eliminated
SRH are out of playoff contention, even if they win all their remaining matches, with a maximum possible total of 13 points. Their focus now shifts to playing spoilers against KKR, RCB and LSG while likely testing their bench strength and aiming to finish the season with pride.
Rajasthan Royals Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: CSK (H) & PBKS (H)
- Position: 9th – 12 matches, 6 points, NRR -0.718
- Status: Eliminated
RR are officially out of playoff contention following a crushing defeat to MI. Even back-to-back wins would only take them to 10 points, far from qualification. With nothing to lose they’ll now aim to disrupt other teams' playoff hopes.
Chennai Super Kings Qualification Scenario
- Remaining Fixtures: RR (A) & GT (A)
- Position: 10th – 12 matches, 6 points, NRR -0.992
- Status: Eliminated
CSK’s IPL 2025 campaign is done and dusted & will finish in the bottom two. A dismal run of form and a poor Net Run Rate have sealed their fate. However, their remaining fixtures could still influence the playoff picture for others.
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